Effect of Climate Change on Identification of Delayed Chilling Damage of Rice in China’s Cold Region

Abstract

This study analyzed temperature and yield data from 34 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province during 1961–2020. Four climate averages (P1, P2, P3, and P4) were determined based on their respective time distributions (1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010, and 1991–2020). The national standard temperature anomaly index was used to identify delayed chilling damage in rice cultivation compared to these climate averages. Climate tendency rate analysis, Mann–Kendall detection, and linear regression methods were employed to examine the relationship between temperature anomaly and rice yield from May to September. The results showed that there were noticeable differences in recognizing delayed chilling damage across different climate averages from 1961 to 2020. The average duration of chilling damage under P1, P2, P3, and P4 was, respectively, estimated as 8.5 years, 13.3 years, 21.4 years, and 30.9 years, with severe cold damage accounting for a significant portion (68.2–76.0%) of the total chilling damage period. The occurrence of severe cold damage increased significantly over time while light and moderate cold damage did not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend. Based on the test results, P3 was found to be the most suitable climate average for identifying delayed chilling damage in rice cultivation from 1961 to 2020. Moreover, the incidence of chilling damage revealed declining trend over time. There was a high incidence of chilling damage in the 1960s and 1970s, followed by a decrease from the 1980s to the mid 1990s, and finally a low-incidence period after the mid-1990s. Spatially, the western regions experienced greater occurrence of chilling damage than the eastern regions. Additionally, there was a highly significant positive correlation (p < 0.01) between temperature anomalies from May to September and relative meteorological yield of rice. As temperature anomalies decreased during this period, there was an observed downward trend in relative meteorological yield of rice, indicating that delayed cold injury had a negative impact on rice production.