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PurposeWe investigate the impact of private credit expansion and contraction on the unemployment rate in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries.Design/methodology/approachCredit expansion and contraction are measured using a three-level criterion. The fixed effect panel regression model was used to estimate the impact of private credit contraction and expansion on the unemployment rate in ECOWAS countries.FindingsPrivate credit contraction significantly increases the unemployment rate in ECOWAS countries. Private credit expansion does not have a significant effect on the unemployment rate. Real GDP growth has a significant negative effect on the unemployment rate which supports the prediction of the Okun’s Law while the inflation rate has a positive and insignificant effect on the rate of unemployment in ECOWAS countries which contradicts the prediction of the Phillips curve.Practical implicationsPolicymakers in ECOWAS countries need to be cautious when introducing policies that lead to private credit contraction as it could increase unemployment. Policymakers in ECOWAS countries should also find the “threshold” below which private credit contraction will worsen the unemployment rate and introduce policy measures to ensure that private credit contraction does not fall below the threshold.Originality/valueThe literature has not examined the factors leading to tight labor markets or unemployment in West African countries.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-12-2023-0939.
PurposeWe investigate the impact of private credit expansion and contraction on the unemployment rate in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries.Design/methodology/approachCredit expansion and contraction are measured using a three-level criterion. The fixed effect panel regression model was used to estimate the impact of private credit contraction and expansion on the unemployment rate in ECOWAS countries.FindingsPrivate credit contraction significantly increases the unemployment rate in ECOWAS countries. Private credit expansion does not have a significant effect on the unemployment rate. Real GDP growth has a significant negative effect on the unemployment rate which supports the prediction of the Okun’s Law while the inflation rate has a positive and insignificant effect on the rate of unemployment in ECOWAS countries which contradicts the prediction of the Phillips curve.Practical implicationsPolicymakers in ECOWAS countries need to be cautious when introducing policies that lead to private credit contraction as it could increase unemployment. Policymakers in ECOWAS countries should also find the “threshold” below which private credit contraction will worsen the unemployment rate and introduce policy measures to ensure that private credit contraction does not fall below the threshold.Originality/valueThe literature has not examined the factors leading to tight labor markets or unemployment in West African countries.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-12-2023-0939.
We investigate the impact of abnormal credit expansion and contraction on the GDP per capita of ECOWAS countries. We analyse abnormal credit from two dimensions: first, the impact of abnormal credit contraction on GDP per capita, and second, the impact of abnormal credit expansion on GDP per capita. Using data for 10 ECOWAS countries from 1993 to 2021, we find evidence that abnormal credit contraction reduces the GDP per capita of ECOWAS countries. We also find some evidence that abnormal credit expansion reduces the GDP per capita of ECOWAS countries. More specifically, a unit increase in abnormal credit contraction decreases GDP per capita by 0.99 percent while a unit increase in abnormal credit expansion decreases GDP per capita by only 0.1 percent. The findings confirm that 'too little' or 'too much' credit does not improve economic output per person in immature financial systems. We also observe that banking sector solvency and a strong legal system have a positive effect on the GDP per capita of ECOWAS countries while banking sector efficiency has a negative effect on GDP per capita.
هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى التعرف على مفهوم السياحة والاستثمار السياحي وأهدافه ومحاولة إيجاد العلاقة والتأثير بين مجموعة المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية المتمثلة بـ (الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، الانفاق الاستثماري، الائتمان المصرفي، سعر الصرف، الإيرادات السياحية) والاستثمار السياحي. ولتحقيق هذا الهدف اعتمد البحث على المنهج الوصفي التحليلي وذلك من خلال تحليل الاستثمار السياحي فضلا عن تحليل اتجاهات كل متغير من متغيرات الدراسة، وقد شملت عينة الدراسة القطاع السياحي وبعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية في العراق بالاستناد على البيانات السنوية للمدة (2004_2021) وقد توصل البحث إلى مجموعة من الاستنتاجات من أهمها أن جميع المتغيرات المختارة ترتبط بعلاقة طردية مع الاستثمار السياحي وهذا يؤكد ان هذه المتغيرات يمكن أن تحسن من مستوى النشاط السياحي ومن أهم التوصيات هي الاطلاع على تجارب الدول السياحية للنهوض بالقطاع السياحي وزيادة فرص التنمية عن طريق مواكبة التطور الحاصل في القطاعات السياحية لهذه الدول والاستفادة من النتائج المتحققة والتي تناسب القطاع السياحي في العراق.
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