Effect modification of individual- and regional-scale characteristics on heat wave-related mortality rates between 2009 and 2012 in Seoul, South Korea

Kim, Ejin; Kim, Ho

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.248

Cited by 39 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The high consistency of the performance of the heat-related risk assessment model indicated that the model might properly respond to heat-related mortality variability. Due to the complex mechanism of mortality, predicting the heat-related mortality is a difficult task [44][45][46][47]. The possible reason for the adequate response of PTmax to varying heat-related mortalities is that the PT is based on the heat budget model (namely KMM) for human beings.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data

Kang

Kim

Shin

2020

IJERPH

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This study aimed to assess the heat-related risk (excess mortality rate) at six cities, namely, Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, in South Korea using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a physiology-based thermal comfort index, the wet-bulb globe temperature, which is meteorology-based thermal comfort index, and air temperature. Particularly, the applicability of PTmax was evaluated using excess mortality rate modeling. An event-based heat-related risk assessment model was employed for modeling the excess mortality rate. The performances of excess mortality rate models using those variables were evaluated for two data sets that were used (training data, 2000–2016) and not used (test data, 2017–2018) for the construction of the assessment models. Additionally, the excess mortality rate was separately modeled depending on regions and ages. PTmax is a good temperature indicator that can be used to model the excess mortality rate in South Korea. The application of PTmax in modeling the total mortality rate yields the best performances for the test data set, particularly for young people. From a forecasting perspective, PTmax is the most appropriate temperature indicator for assessing the heat-related excess mortality rate in South Korea.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data

Kang

Kim

Shin

2020

IJERPH

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“…Evidence of the effect of marital status on the mortality risk of heat waves is relatively limited. Previous studies suggested an increased mortality risk in persons who are married or widowed/divorced during heat waves in Korea; São Paulo, Brazil; and northern China [56,57,58], whereas a study in Michigan showed higher risks of cardiovascular mortality during hot days in the unmarried elderly population [59]. A study in King County, Washington, US, did not find that marital status altered the mortality risk on hot days [60].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of a Quasi-Experimental Study on the Mortality Effect of a Heat Wave Warning System in Korea

Heo

Nori-Sarma

Lee

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Many cities and countries have implemented heat wave warning systems to combat the health effects of extreme heat. Little is known about whether these systems actually reduce heat-related morbidity and mortality. We examined the effectiveness of heat wave alerts and health plans in reducing the mortality risk of heat waves in Korea by utilizing the discrepancy between the alerts and the monitored temperature. A difference-in-differences analysis combined with propensity score weighting was used. Mortality, weather monitoring, and heat wave alert announcement data were collected for 7 major cities during 2009–2014. Results showed evidence of risk reduction among people aged 19–64 without education (−0.144 deaths/1,000,000 people, 95% CI: −0.227, −0.061) and children aged 0–19 (−0.555 deaths/1,000,000 people, 95% CI: −0.993, −0.117). Decreased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was found in several subgroups including single persons, widowed people, blue-collar workers, people with no education or the highest level of education (university or higher). No evidence was found for decreased all-cause mortality in the population (1.687 deaths/1,000,000 people per day; 95% CI: 1.118, 2.255). In conclusion, heat wave alerts may reduce mortality for several causes and subpopulations of age and socio-economic status. Further work needs to examine the pathways through which the alerts impact subpopulations differently.

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“…Those studies have found that temperature-mortality curves are usually U or J shaped, which means that non-optimal temperatures, both low and high, lead to excess mortality [2]. Other studies further showed that socioeconomic status such as individual income and education attainment had a significant modifying effect on the association [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature among various development regions: a nationwide study in 364 locations in China

et al. 2020

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Background Several studies have investigated the associations between ambient temperature and years of life lost (YLLs), but few focused on the difference of life loss attributable to temperature among different socioeconomic development levels. Objectives We investigated the disparity in temperature-YLL rate relationships and life loss per death attributable to nonoptimal temperature in regions with various development levels. Methods Three hundred sixty-four Chinese counties or districts were classified into 92 high-development regions (HDRs) and 272 low-development regions (LDRs) according to socioeconomic factors of each location using K-means clustering approach. We used distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the temperature-YLL rate relationships. We calculated attributable fraction (AF) of YLL and temperature-related average life loss per death to compare mortality burden of temperature between HDRs and LDRs. Stratified analyses were conducted by region, age, sex and cause of death. Results We found that non-optimal temperatures increased YLL rates in both HDRs and LDRs, but all subgroups in LDRs were more vulnerable. The disparity of cold effects between HDRs and LDRs was significant, while the difference in heat effect was insignificant. The overall AF of non-optimal temperature in LDRs [AF = 12.2, 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):11.0–13.5%] was higher than that in HDRs (AF = 8.9, 95% eCI: 8.3–9.5%). Subgroups analyses found that most groups in LDRs had greater AFs than that in HDRs. The average life loss per death due to non-optimal temperature in LDRs (1.91 years, 95% eCI: 1.72–2.10) was also higher than that in HDRs (1.32 years, 95% eCI: 1.23–1.41). Most of AFs and life loss per death were caused by moderate cold in both HDRs and LDRs. Conclusions Mortality burden caused by temperature was more significant in LDRs than that in HDRs, which means that more attention should be paid to vulnerable populations in LDRs in planning adaptive strategies.

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Effect modification of individual- and regional-scale characteristics on heat wave-related mortality rates between 2009 and 2012 in Seoul, South Korea

Cited by 39 publications

References 45 publications

Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data

Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data

The Use of a Quasi-Experimental Study on the Mortality Effect of a Heat Wave Warning System in Korea

Comparison of life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature among various development regions: a nationwide study in 364 locations in China

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