In predicating the probability distribution of chloride diffusion coefficient of recycled aggregate concrete (D RAC ), the morphological characteristics of three phases, i.e., the old attached mortar, the natural aggregate and the new mortar, should all be taken into account. The present paper attempts to develop a probability density evolution method (PDEM) to achieve this. After verifying the derived PDEM results with experimental results, the effects of old attached mortar to the D RAC are examined in a quantitative manner. It is found that (1) the variation of the attached mortar content is much sensitive to D RAC ; (2) given the probability distribution of the content and chloride diffusion coefficient of old mortar, the probability distribution of D RAC can be analysed based on the PDEM; and (3) the critical chloride diffusion coefficient at a certain assurance rate can be obtained by the PDEM. The analysis results of this investigation will be valuable to the durability design for RAC.