Educational differentials in fertility intentions and outcomes: family formation in Flanders in the early 1990s

Abstract

Over the last decades the majority of European countries have witnessed fertility levels considerably below replacement. Particularly completed cohort fertility below two children per woman has raised concerns whether this trend corresponds to a decline of fertility intentions or represents a discrepancy between intended and realised fertility. Using data from the Fertility and Family Survey (FFS) conducted in 1991, we look at fertility intentions of women aged 20-39 in Flanders, documenting how intentions differ in terms of education of women and their partners, activity status and household position. For a larger group of women, we subsequently compare the effects of these characteristics on first-, second-and third-birth hazards in a prospective study based on longitudinal microdata from the 1991 and 2001 Belgian censuses. Our results indicate that lifetime fertility intentions in 1991 were above the replacement level, but also that the proportion of women having a child in the three-year period following the 1991 census is lower than the short-term intentions suggested in the FFS, particularly for first births. We find evidence of a positive educational gradient in both fertility intentions and birth hazards. For the highly educated, higher birth hazards are associated with a stronger attachment to the labour market (both before and after parenthood), homogamy to highly educated partners and more frequent uptake of (in)formal child care.

Fertility Intentions and Effective Factors at a Glance: A Systematic Review

“…In most developed countries, the educational level of couples has a positive in uence on their fertility intentions. This result is similar in different age groups (26,35,37,38,35,40,41).…”

Educational differences in timing and quantum of childbearing in Britain

“…Given the generally small educational differential in intended fertility reported in the UK and other European countries (De Wachter and Neels 2012;Testa 2012;Berrington and Pattaro 2014), the large educational differences seen in the UK in childlessness and completed family size suggest that, for these cohorts at least, barriers to combining motherhood and careers remained for more educated women (Sigle-Rushton and Waldfogel 2007). Whilst it is beyond the scope of this paper to identify what these barriers might be, previous research suggests that they could include the lack of acceptance in public attitudes of women with young children working full-time (O'Reilly, Nazio, and Roche 2014); the lack of family-friendly policies, especially for mothers working in the UK private sector (Adsera 2004); and high levels of part-time employment among working mothers in the UK, which limits access to professional careers that are less likely to accommodate flexible working arrangements (Joshi 2002).…”

The educational gradient of fertility intentions: a meta-analysis of European studies

“…The prediction made in the literature on the second demographic transition that ideational change lowers people's fertility intentions by emphasising individuals' self-realisation needs and values (Van de Kaa 2002;Caltabiano et al 2009;Lesthaeghe 2010;McQuillan et al 2014) has not come true. Post-materialist attitudes do not seem to be negatively correlated with ideal family size, and a considerable number of studies have found that fertility intentions are indeed higher among highly educated than among less educated women (De Wachter and Neels 2011;Mills et al 2008;Roukolainen and Notkola 2002); and that these intentions are often closely clustered around the level of two children (Testa 2014).…”