Editorial for the Med-CORDEX special issue

Somot, Samuel; Ruti, Paolo; Ahrens, Bodo; Coppola, Erika; Jordà, Gabriel; Sannino, Gianmaria; Solmon, F.

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4325-x

Cited by 34 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(72 reference statements)

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“…Many of these recommendations and the future steps towards the improvement of the climatic simulations in the Mediterranean Sea are being addressed in the phase 2 of the Med-CORDEX initiative (Somot et al 2018b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Mediterranean Sea water properties under climate change scenarios in the Med-CORDEX ensemble

et al. 2020

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Twenty-first century projections for the Mediterranean water properties have been analyzed using the largest ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) available up to now, the Med-CORDEX ensemble. It is comprised by 25 simulations, 10 historical and 15 scenario projections, from which 11 are ocean-atmosphere coupled runs and 4 are ocean forced simulations. Three different emissions scenarios are considered: RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. All the simulations agree in projecting a warming across the entire Mediterranean basin by the end of the century as a result of the decrease of heat losses to the atmosphere through the sea surface and an increase in the net heat input through the Strait of Gibraltar. The warming will affect the whole water column with higher anomalies in the upper layer. The temperature change projected by the end of the century ranges between 0.81 and 3.71 °C in the upper layer (0-150 m), between 0.82 and 2.97 °C in the intermediate layer (150-600 m) and between 0.15 and 0.18 °C in the deep layer (600 m-bottom). The intensity of the warming is strongly dependent on the choice of emission scenario and, in second order, on the choice of Global Circulation Model (GCM) used to force the RCM. On the other hand, the local structures reproduced by each simulation are mainly determined by the regional model and not by the scenario or the global model. The salinity also increases in all the simulation due to the increase of the freshwater deficit (i.e. the excess of evaporation over precipitation and river runoff) and the related increase in the net salt transport at the Gibraltar Strait. However, in the upper layer this process can be damped or enhanced depending upon the characteristics of the inflowing waters from the Atlantic. This, in turn, depends on the evolution of salinity in the Northeast Atlantic projected by the GCM. Thus a clear zonal gradient is found in most simulations with large positive salinity anomalies in the eastern basin and a freshening of the upper layer of the western basin in most simulations. The salinity changes projected for the whole basin range between 0 and 0.34 psu in the upper layer, between 0.08 and 0.37 psu in the intermediate layer and between − 0.05 and 0.33 in the deep layer. These changes in the temperature and salinity modify in turn the characteristics of the main water masses as the new waters become saltier, warmer and less dense along the twenty-first century. There is a model consensus that the intensity of the deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions is expected to decrease in the future. The rate of decrease remains however very uncertain depending on the scenario and model chosen. At the contrary, there is no model consensus concerning the change in the intensity of the deep water formation in the Adriatic Sea and in the Aegean Sea, although most models also point to a reduction.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Mediterranean Sea water properties under climate change scenarios in the Med-CORDEX ensemble

et al. 2020

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“…In relation to this, changes in atmospheric stability (beyond those already captured by a re-adjustment within the domain due to convective processes) and decreases in relative humidity could also substantially affect changes in convective activity in the future climate (Loriaux et al 2013, Keller et al 2018, although CPRCM results for the Benelux showed relatively small impacts of lapse-rate changes in a pseudo warming setting (Attema et al 2014). Finally, a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional modelling system is required to describe atmosphere-ocean feedbacks more realistically (Somot et al 2018). Despite this, we argue that by choosing well-constrained experimental Figure 8.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model

Lenderink

Belušić

Fowler

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Changes in sub-daily precipitation extremes potentially lead to large impacts of climate change due to their influence on soil erosion, landslides, and flooding. However, these changes are still rather uncertain, with only limited high-resolution results available and a lack of fundamental knowledge on the processes leading to sub-daily extremes. Here, we study the response of hourly extremes in a convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) for an idealized warming experimentrepeating present-day observed weather under warmer and moister conditions. Ten months of simulation covering summer and early autumn for two domains over western Central Europe and western Mediterranean are performed. In general, we obtain higher sensitivities to warming for localscale extreme precipitation at the original grid-scale of 2.5-3 km than for aggregated analyses at a scale of 12-15 km, representative for currently conventional regional climate models. The grid-scale sensitivity over sea, and in particular over the Mediterranean Sea, approaches 12%-16% increase per degree, close to two times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. In contrast, over the dry parts of Spain the sensitivity is close to the CC rate of 6%-7% per degree. For other land areas, sensitivities are in between these two values, with a tendency for the cooler and more humid areas to show lower scaling rates for the most intense hourly precipitation, whereas the land area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea shows the opposite behaviour with the largest increases projected for the most extreme hourly precipitation intensities. While our experimental setup only estimates the thermodynamic response of extremes due to moisture increases, and neglects a number of large-scale feedbacks that may temper future increases in precipitation extremes, some of the sensitivities reported here reflect findings from observational trends. Therefore, our results can provide guidance within which to understand recent observed trends and for future climate projections with CPRCMs.

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“…org/regional-climate) bodies through linking to the wider climate research community, such as the newly established MIPs and other WCRP core projects. The EURO-CORDEX community submitted two successful FPS applications, one on the climatic impacts of land cover changes and one jointly with the Med-CORDEX community (Ruti et al 2016;Somot et al 2018) on convective phenomena through the use of very high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs). These computationally intensive projects started up in 2017 and just recently begun to produce results.…”

Section: Flagship Pilot Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

et al. 2020

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The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11 • EUR-11 and 0.44 • EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empiricalstatistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.

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Editorial for the Med-CORDEX special issue

Cited by 34 publications

References 41 publications

Evolution of Mediterranean Sea water properties under climate change scenarios in the Med-CORDEX ensemble

Evolution of Mediterranean Sea water properties under climate change scenarios in the Med-CORDEX ensemble

Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model

Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

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