At present, there would appear to be no literature dealing with the prediction of width variation either by analytical or numerical methods during the breakdown passes in the commercial hot rolling of aluminium alloys. Since this lateral ¯ow may promote many rolling defects, particularly edge cracking, this would appear to be an important technical feature. It is clear that an understanding of these factors, which play a dominant role in this deformation mode, should increase yield and ef® ciency. In this communication, initial slabs with concave, convex and straight edge pro® les are simulated by a commercial ® nite element analysis program and results compared with experimental data derived both from laboratory and industrial rolling data. The computed results are in good agreement with the measured data. Some severe discrepancies between laboratory and industrial rolling are highlighted and discussed.MST/5117