Ecosystem shift of a mountain lake under climate and human pressure: A move out from the safe operating space

Szabó, Zoltán; Buczkó, Krisztina; Haliuc, Aritina; Pál, Ilona; Korponai, János; Begy, Róbert; Vereș, Daniel; Luoto, Tomi P.; Zsigmond, Andreea R.; Magyari, Enikő K.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140584

Cited by 22 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…studied in the same stratigraphical sequence (e.g. Birks & Ammann, 2000; Szabó et al, 2020). Moreover, it is most useful when RoC results are compared from several sequences (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Laird, Fritz, & Cumming, 1998;H. H. Birks & Ammann, 2000;Solovieva, Jones, Birks, Appleby, & Nazarova, 2008;Urrego et al, 2009;Correa-Metrio et al, 2012;Grindean, Tanţău, & Feurdean, 2019;Szabó et al, 2020), there has been relatively little exploration of the underlying methodology of RoC analysis and how the various methodologies and sequence properties influence RoC estimates (but see Lotter, Ammann, & Sturm, 1992;Bennett & Humphry, 1995;Birks, 2012). Different approaches to estimate RoC (Bennett & Humphry, 1995;Birks, 2012) involve choices in terms of approach and technique, such as transforming the stratigraphical levels and associated fossil data (using binning or interpolation to constant time intervals), smoothing the data, and the metric used to estimate the amount of compositional dissimilarity between adjacent levels (Birks, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rate-of-change analysis in palaeoecology revisited: a new approach

Mottl

Grytnes

Seddon

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Dynamics in the rate of compositional change beyond the time of human observation are uniquely preserved in palaeoecological sequences from peat or lake sediments. Changes in sedimentation rates and sampling strategies result in an uneven distribution of time intervals within stratigraphical data, which makes assessing rates of compositional change and the detection of periods with a high rate-of-change (RoC) or ‘peak-points’ challenging. Despite these known issues and their importance, and the frequent use of RoC in palaeoecology, there has been relatively little exploration of differing approaches to quantifying RoC.Here, we introduce R-Ratepol (an easy to use R package) that provides a robust numerical technique for detecting and summarising RoC patterns in complex multivariate time-ordered stratigraphical sequences. We compare the performance of common methods of estimating RoC using simulated pollen-stratigraphical data with known patterns of compositional change and temporal resolution. In addition, we apply our new methodology to four representative European pollen sequences.Simulated data show large differences in the successful detection of known patterns in RoC peak-point detection depending on the smoothing methods and dissimilarity coefficients used, and the level density and their taxonomic richness. Building on these results, we propose a new method of binning with a moving window in combination with a generalised additive model for peak-point detection. The method shows a 22% increase in the correct detection of peak-points and 4% lower occurrence of false positives compared to the more traditional way of peak selection by individual levels, as well as achieving a reasonable compromise between type I and type II errors. The four representative pollen sequences from Europe show that our methodological combination also performs well in detecting periods of significant compositional change including the onset of human activity, early land-use transformation, and changes in fire frequency.Expanding the approach using R-Ratepol to the increasingly available stratigraphical data on pollen, chironomids, or diatoms will allow future palaeoecological and macroecological studies to quantify, and then attribute, major changes in biotic composition across broad spatial areas through time.

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“…studied in the same stratigraphical sequence (e.g. Birks & Ammann, 2000; Szabó et al, 2020). Moreover, it is most useful when RoC results are compared from several sequences (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rate-of-change analysis in palaeoecology revisited: a new approach

Mottl

Grytnes

Seddon

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, given the archeological records showing evidence of agrarian and pastoralism in global uplands, the high-mountain lakes might have been impacted much earlier. However, the earlier date of significant human influence on global lake ecosystems varies spatially and depends on the type of environmental contaminant, stress intensity, and the tracer response (Szab o et al 2020). As such, fossil fuel combustion and expansion of agricultural activities aided by natural carriers (such as wind) have put increased stress on these remote ecosystems by more than one unit of magnitude compared to pre-Anthropocene background levels (Oleksy et al 2020).…”

Section: Nexus Between Climate Change Ecosystem Dynamics and Local Co...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Deep and Frozen: High‐Mountain Lakes as Sentinels of Regional Limnology and Global Environmental Changes

Lone

Balakrishna

2023

Limnology & Oceanogr Bull

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High‐mountain lakes possess tremendous ecological significance and contribute to the well‐being of local mountain population and those living in adjacent lowland areas. Over the years, the structure and function of these ecosystems have experienced significant variations particularly due to the synergistic effects of climate stressors and human perturbations as well as reformed water consumption patterns. However, research on hydrology of mountain lakes remains focused on particular regions and related scientific perspectives on lake ecological shifts are still insufficient. Furthermore, the lack of strong nexus between scientists, stakeholders, and local community also promotes data gaps in mountain paleolimnology. Hence, it should be recognized that investigating the nexus between different stakeholders and global climate shifts as well as investigating the anthropogenic forcing factors in high‐mountain lakes is fundamental for future hydrological studies. New proxy‐based assessments and continuous, high‐frequency limnological measurements will help improve spatiotemporal resolution and address existing data gaps in high‐mountain limnology and paleolimnology.

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“…Lakes are regulated by the tolerance ranges of their components and the threshold for change (Langdon et al, 2016). According to Szabó et al (2020), minor effects in lake ecosystems usually return the system to its original state. However, significant effects generate a whole new system that is quite different from the original.…”

Section: Possible Recovery To the Previous State?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lakes are fundamental to the environment and the biosphere, supporting a global heritage of biodiversity (McIntyre et al, 2016;Vadeboncoeur et al, 2011). These ecosystems are highly sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances and climatic changes (Dubois et al, 2017;Woolway et al, 2020), and the combined effects of these changes are profoundly altering the chemical and biological processes potentially with irreversible modifications in lakes (Catalan et al, 2013;Szabó et al, 2020). Widespread changes within lakes include eutrophication (Pla-Rabés et al, 2005;Vázquez-Loureiro et al, 2019), acidification (Solomon et al, 2015), changes in water mixing regimes (Bao et al, 2015;Woolway and Merchant, 2019) and surface water temperatures (Zhong et al, 2016), morphological alterations (Saulnier-Talbot and Lavoie, 2018), invasive species (Raposeiro et al, 2017), and water budgets (Haddeland et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%