Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2℃ warming

Abstract

Forests provide a wide range of provisioning, regulating and cultural services of great value to societies across the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we reviewed the scientific literature of the last 30 years to quantify the magnitude of projected changes in ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests under IPCC climate change scenarios. We classified the scenarios according to the temperature threshold of 2℃ set by the Paris Agreement (below or above). The review of 78 studies shows that climate change will lead to a general reduction in the provision of regulating services (e.g. carbon storage, regulation of freshwater quantity and quality) and a general increase in the number of fires, burnt areas and generally, an increase in climate‐related forest hazards (median + 62% by 2100). Studies using scenarios above the 2℃ threshold projected significantly more negative changes in regulating services than studies using scenarios below this threshold. Main projected trend changes on material services (e.g. wood products), were less clear and depended on (i) whether or not the studies considered the interaction between the rise in temperatures and other drivers (e.g. forest management, CO2 fertilization) and (ii) differences in productivity responses across the tree species evaluated. Overall, the reviewed studies projected significant reductions in range extent and habitat suitability for the most drought‐sensitive forest species (e.g. −88% Fagus sylvatica), while the amount of habitat available for more drought‐tolerant species will remain stable or increase; however, the magnitude of projected change for these more xeric species was limited when high‐end extreme climatic scenarios were considered (above Paris Agreement). Our review highlights the benefits that climate change mitigation (to keep global mean temperature increase <2℃) can bring in terms of service provision and conservation of Mediterranean forests.

Impacts of Future Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes on Water-Related Ecosystem Services in Changbai Mountains, Northeast China

“…The InVEST model is mainly based on spatial data (land use data and climate data) and assesses the value of ecosystem services through empirical models. Due to its ease of accessibility and rich functionality, the model has been widely used in ecological and hydrological studies (Luetzenburg et al, 2020;Morán-Ordóez et al, 2021). All models were parameterized and tested at the CBMR (Xiao et al, 2002;Yu et al, 2018;Li et al, 2019).…”

The impact of ecological restoration on ecosystem services change modulated by drought and rising CO2

“…Climate change and rising CO 2 have been found to have great impacts on ecosystem services by affecting ecosystem processes (Morán-Ordóñez et al, 2021;Runting et al, 2017;Walker et al, 2021). Climate change can increase the intensity and frequency of heat waves (Zheng et al, 2021), floods (Li et al, 2019), wildfires (Mollicone et al, 2006), pest diseases (Wang et al, 2022), and especially drought (Chiang et al, 2021).…”

“…This change would affect ecosystem processes and reduce the provision of ecosystem services (Fu et al, 2013). Morán-Ordóñez et al (2021) found that future drought would probably cause material services and regulating services to decline by approximately 4.43% and 8.6%, respectively, in Mediterranean forests. The negative impact of drought on ecosystem services provision would be aggravated by the increase in the degree of drought (Han et al, 2019).…”

Simulating alternative forest management in a changing climate on aPinus nigrasubsp.laricioplantation in Southern Italy

“…The Mediterranean basin is also a global biodiversity hotspot (Myers et al, 2000; Noce et al, 2016), with its forests harboring three times the number of tree species as the rest of Europe in a fourfold smaller area (Fady-Welterlen, 2005). These ecosystems play a key role in the livelihoods of local communities by providing food, timber, clean water, protection against soil erosion and micro-climatic regulation (Mazza et al, 2018; Morán-Ordóñez et al, 2021, 2020). At the same time, the Mediterranean basin is one of the main climate change hotspots on the planet (Diffenbaugh and Giorgi, 2012; Noce et al, 2017; Tuel and Eltahir, 2020).…”