Ecosystem services at risk in Italy from coastal inundation under extreme sea level scenarios up to 2050: A spatially resolved approach supporting climate change adaptation

Abstract

According to the latest projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at the end of the century, coastal zones and low-lying ecosystems will be increasingly threatened by rising global mean sea levels. In order to support integrated coastal zone management and advance the basic "source-pathway-receptor-consequence" approach focused on traditional receptors (e.g., population, infrastructure, and economy), a novel risk framework is proposed able to evaluate potential risks of loss or degradation of ecosystem services (ESs) due to projected extreme sea level scenarios in the Italian coast. Three risk scenarios for the reference period and future time frame up to 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are developed by integrating extreme water-level projections related to changing climate conditions, with vulnerability information about the topography, distance from coastlines, and presence of artificial protections. A risk assessment is then performed considering the potential effects of the spatial-temporal variability of inundations and land use on the supply level and spatial distribution of ESs. The results of the analysis are summarized into a spatially explicit risk index, useful to rank coastal areas more prone to ESs losses or degradation due to coastal inundation at the national scale. Overall, the Northern Adriatic coast is scored at high risk of ESs loss or degradation in the future scenario. Other small coastal strips with medium risk scores are the Eastern Puglia coast, Western Sardinia, and Tuscany's coast. The ESs Coastal Risk Index provides an easyto-understand screening assessment that could support the prioritization of areas for coastal adaptation at the national scale. Moreover, this index allows the direct evaluation of the public value of ecosystems and supports more effective territorial planning and environmental management decisions. In particular, it could support the mainstreaming of ecosystem-based approaches (e.g., ecological engineering and green infrastructures) to mitigate the risks of climate change and extreme events while protecting ecosystems and biodiversity.

A Methodological Proposal for the Climate Change Risk Assessment of Coastal Habitats Based on the Evaluation of Ecosystem Services: Lessons Learnt from the INTERREG Project ECO-SMART

“…This paper presents a climate change risk assessment method that combines the socioecological theoretical framework of ecosystem services assessment with local stakeholder participation, to systematically identify climate related issues for local protected habitats. The methodology was applied to selected Natura 2000 sites along the Adriatic coast, an area at high risk of ecosystem service loss due to climate change [15]. Results show that each of the assessed sites, despite being along the coast of the same sea, is affected by different climate-related issues impacting different habitats and corresponding ecosystem services.…”

“…In general, ecosystembased climate change adaptation methodologies for coastal ecosystems accounting for the interactions between ecosystem quality, resilience and services are lacking. Several approaches demonstrate the general vulnerability of coastal ecosystem services, e.g., in Australia [12], USA [13], the French overseas mangrove territories [14], and the coasts of Italy [15]. Risk assessments for coastal habitats in connection to climatic threats should be based on a general methodology and be easily transferrable across the many and hugely diverse sites of the network, on the one hand, and yet, on the other, site-specific assessments tailored to the peculiarities of the individual Natura 2000 sites appear fundamental to fully achieving the network potential to support the provision of multiple environmental, social and economic benefits.…”

A Framework for a Hazard Taxonomy to Support Risk Assessment of Tangible Outdoor Heritage

“…As a result of this additional screening, seven papers were selected, for which an analytic study was performed relating to the definition of the risk. The SLR made it possible to define indicators and indices of use for a quantitative assessment of the specific risk Sea level rise [63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70] in order to implement it in the prepared framework.…”

Multi-platform assessment of coastal protection and carbon sequestration in the Venice Lagoon under future scenarios

“…The Venice lagoon constitutes a noteworthy hotspot for inundation risk within the Italian northern Adriatic basin due to the significant presence of low-lying coastal areas (Furlan et al, 2022). Particularly, the area surrounding Venice is entirely characterized by low elevation coastal.…”

“…This area is among the most hazard-prone and vulnerable on the entire Italian coast. The Venice lagoon and neighboring coastal systems present a distinctive variety of wetlands, lagoons, and nature reserves, but due to the combination of subsidence, low elevation, and the projected extreme sea level, these areas are prone to loss of ecosystem services (Furlan et al, 2022).…”