Economy-wide implications of biofuel production in Zambia

Abstract

It is estimated that biofuel demand in South Africa will increase to 1,550 million litres by 2025 following the introduction of mandatory blending rates in 2014. Land and water constraints, however, limit domestic supply ability. Zambia, due to abundance of land, suitable climate, supportive bioenergy incentives, and geographical proximity, has the potential to meet this increased demand. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the macro-and socio-economic impacts of bioethanol production in Zambia under both commercial and smallholder farming models, including and excluding bagasse co-generation. Three feedstock crops are considered: sugarcane, cassava, and sweet sorghum.

Economic impacts of developing a biofuel industry in Mozambique

“…The budget data did not offer information on the returns to the capital production factor. We therefore use shares derived in a similar study for Zambia (see Hartley et al, 2017).…”

“…Thus, there is no Mozambique-specific data available for bioethanol processing. Following the approaches of Sinkala et al (2013) and Hartley et al (2017), estimates from international experience are used. Specifically, we use information from Sinkala et al (2013), which is based on a 2010 study by the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Secretariat (APEC, 2010) in which the processing costs for Brazil, Malaysia, and the USA are considered over a 10-year period.…”

“…This paper, derived from Hartley et al (2016) and based on similar studies undertaken in Mozambique, Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia (Arndt et al, 2010;Arndt et al, 2012;Hartley et al, 2017;Schuenemann et al, 2017), assesses the economic, welfare and food security impacts of the development of such an industry in Mozambique using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. Four scenarios are considered to assess the impacts of various elements in the biofuels debate.…”

Evaluating the impact of global oil prices on the SADC and the potential for increased trade in biofuels and natural gas within the region

“…The production of biofuels in Zambia, Mozambique, and South Africa has so far been minimal due to several factors, including lack of access to finance, land, and guaranteed markets, as well as the presence of fossil fuel subsidies on imports (Fundira and Henley 2017). Some recent studies have, however, highlighted that Zambia and Mozambique still have huge potential to produce biofuels (Hartley et al 2016(Hartley et al , 2017. Zambia has now removed its fossil fuel import subsides, and has abundant arable land that can be used to grow crops such as sugarcane and cassava that can be used as feedstock to produce ethanol (Hartley et al 2017).…”

“…Some recent studies have, however, highlighted that Zambia and Mozambique still have huge potential to produce biofuels (Hartley et al 2016(Hartley et al , 2017. Zambia has now removed its fossil fuel import subsides, and has abundant arable land that can be used to grow crops such as sugarcane and cassava that can be used as feedstock to produce ethanol (Hartley et al 2017). The Mozambique government has also approved sugarcane as a feedstock to produce bioethanol (Hartley et al 2016), which could contribute towards increasing biofuel production in the country.…”