Economy-Wide And Distributional Impacts Of An Oil Price Shock On The South African Economy

Essama-Nssah, B.; Go, Delfin S.; Kearney, Marna; Korman, Vijdan; Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen

doi:10.1596/1813-9450-4354

Cited by 31 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…3. Comparing the sectoral results to those by McDonald and van Schoor (2005) and Essama-Nssah et al (2007) shows that the general trend is the same. High oil intensive sectors such as transport services suffer relatively more than the other sectors.…”

Section: The Meso-economic Impactssupporting

confidence: 57%

“…The study combines a household survey dataset and an input-output (IO) dataset to implement the models. Previous studies that have addressed a similar issue in South Africa are McDonald and van Schoor (2005) and Essama-Nssah et al (2007). They use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) macro-micro framework to understand the structural and distributional consequences of oil price increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Oil prices and the South African economy: A macro–meso–micro analysis

Fofana

Chitiga

Mabugu³

2009

Energy Policy

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Three levels of analysis are used to track the channels by which South Africa and its people are impacted by an increase of oil prices, namely the macro-economic level, the meso-economic level and the micro-economic/household level. The paper uses an economy and energy integrated approach to quantify these different channels. The approach combines a household survey dataset and an input-output dataset to implement the models. Results indicate that the impacts on the macroeconomy are negative, with gross domestic product falling and the current account balance worsening. All of the industries falling into the high intensive oil -use group witness an increase of their input cost that is above the economy -wide average. The impact of doubling paraffin prices results in poor households in rural areas and among the "Black" population, in particular, witnessing an increase of their cost of living which is much higher than their corresponding highest expenditure quintile groups. An increase of transport fuel hits the richer households much harder. The distributional impacts of rising transport cost as a consequence of high oil and oil-products prices shows that median quintile expenditure groups observe the highest impact both in urban and rural areas and especially among the "Black" population.

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Section: The Meso-economic Impactssupporting

confidence: 57%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil prices and the South African economy: A macro–meso–micro analysis

Fofana

Chitiga

Mabugu³

2009

Energy Policy

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“…In the realm of climate mitigation, many national studies assess the distributional impacts of mitigation using general equilibrium approaches, mostly for the US and Europe [31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42] , though increasingly also for developing countries 32,[43][44][45][46][47][48] . Methodologically, the literature reveals a variety of stages towards including distributional impacts on households.…”

Section: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research

et al. 2017

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“…Other studies include Essama-Nssah, Go, Kearney, Korman, Robinson and Thierfelder (2007), and McDonald and Van Schoor (2005), which uses computable general equilibrium models to simulate the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of an oil price increase in the South African economy. The studies conclude that a 20 per cent increase in global oil prices reduced domestic output by 1 per cent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy

Chisadza

Dlamini

Gupta

et al. 2016

Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy

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The recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on an economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the oil supply and demand shocks on the South African economy using a sign restriction-based structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Our results show that an oil supply shock has a short-lived significant impact only on the inflation rate, while the impact on the other variables is statistically insignificant. Supply disruptions result in a short-term increase in the domestic inflation rate with no reaction from the monetary policy. An aggregate demand shock results in short-to medium-term improvements in domestic output and the real exchange rate. The effect is statistically insignificant for the inflation rate as well as the monetary policy instrument. The inflation rate and the real exchange rate react negatively to an oil-specific demand shock, while output is positively related to unanticipated changes in oil price due to speculations. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the source of the oil price movements, since an oil price increase necessarily does not imply a negative effect on the economy. JEL classifications: E13, E63, E66

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Economy-Wide And Distributional Impacts Of An Oil Price Shock On The South African Economy

Cited by 31 publications

References 15 publications

Oil prices and the South African economy: A macro–meso–micro analysis

Oil prices and the South African economy: A macro–meso–micro analysis

Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research

The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy

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