Economics for the future – Beyond the superorganism

Hagens, Nathan John

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106520

Cited by 75 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…In a thermodynamic sense, energy must come from somewhere. Arguably, the lack of attention in conventional agricultural production to the regenerative capacity of agroecosystems, and the economically inexpensive and politically expedient availability of energy subsidies and transfers from other locales, has allowed complexification to progress more or less decoupled from ecological feedbacks (Hagens, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indicators of Complexity and Over-complexification in Global Food Systems

Loring¹,

Sanyal²

2021

Preprint

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Global food systems have increased in complexity significantly since the mid-20th century, through such innovations as mechanization, irrigation, genetic modification, and the globalization of supply chains. While complexification can be an effective problem-solving strategy, over-complexification can cause environmental degradation and lead systems to become increasingly dependent on external subsidies and vulnerable to collapse. Here, we explore a wide array of evidence of complexification and over-complexification in contemporary global food systems, drawing on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and elsewhere. We find that food systems in developed, emerging, and least developed countries have all followed a trajectory of complexification, but that return on investments for energy and other food system inputs have significantly declined—a key indicator of over-complexification. Food systems in developed countries are further along in the process of over-complexification than least developed and emerging countries. Recent agricultural developments, specifically the introduction of genetically modified crops, have not altered this trend or improved return on investments for inputs into food systems. Similarly, emerging innovations belonging to the “digital agricultural revolution” are likewise accompanied by energy demands that may further exacerbate over-complexification. To reverse over-complexification, we discuss strategies including innovation by subtraction, agroecology, and disruptive technology.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indicators of Complexity and Over-complexification in Global Food Systems

Loring¹,

Sanyal²

2021

Preprint

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“…Myopic technology is not new to agriculture. Myopic technology in agriculture dates back millennia and has been related to the collapse of past empires (Fraser and Rimas 2011). However, the use of myopic technology in agriculture has reached unprecedented levels (Wise 2019).…”

Section: The Oil Cycle Viewed From Units Of Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, there are other authors who consider that the production of energy (conversion of energy efficiency to useful work) is an endogenous variable that explains the growth applied to economic production, among which are (Cantillon 1755;Jevons 1866;Meadows 1974;Mollison and Holmgren 1978;Fraser and Rimas 2011;Reynolds 2002;Montgomery 2007;Hamilton 2009;Ayres and Warr 2009;Kümmel 2011,Montgomery, 2007,Hamilton 2013Illig and Schindler 2017;Charlez 2017;Schindler and Schindler 2018;Hall and Kittgard 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Oil Cycle Dynamics to Design the Future Economy

García¹,

Illig

Schindler

2020

Biophys Econ Sust

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In this work, we make the ansatz that economic production is reduced to the energy made available to the economy. In (Illig and Schindler, BioPhys Econ Resour Qual 2(1):1, 2017) the price of oil was expressed as a function of the size of the economy, the cost share of oil, and the quantity of oil extracted. We clarify assumptions needed to use this explicit price equation to study prices. Using the current extraction rate, the previous year's extraction rate, and interest rates of the Federal Reserve we use linear regression to give a model for oil prices from 1966 to 2018. The model verifies that deductions made from the explicit price equation are consistent with empirical data over the given time period. Our analysis indicates that the contraction phase of world oil extraction began in 2020 and that it will be characterized by relatively low oil prices. We present some challenges and opportunities for building a future economy if our assumptions prove valid.

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“…South Africa's economy is facing growing challenges in the recent time, many factors contributing to the challenge is the energy shortage (Lipton, 2013). Energy availability is one of the critical factors of any economy because of its impact on production and the real economy (Hagens, 2020). Energy demand and consumption for both business and household activity needs have increased, largely due to urbanization and the growth of the South African economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental costs estimation and mathematical model of marginal social cost: A case study of coal power plants

Oyewo

Olarewaju

Cloete

et al. 2021

Environmental Economics

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An increase in electricity production is proportional to environmental risks due to continuous energy production. The paper aims to quantitatively estimate the environmental costs and mathematically model the marginal social cost associated with the lifespan of the coal power plants. Results revealed South Africa Tier 1 company optimum level of electricity production per annum at around 2.15 gigawatts, considering the emission costs and reasonable profit. 85% of the total emissions during the combustion phase average cost of the C02 emission discharged by coal is calculated as 0.23c/KWh, 0.085c/kWh is calculated for NO2, while SO2 is 0.035c/KWh. Total emission cost represents 69.2% of the total cost of producing 1 MGW of electricity. The results confirmed the company losses to be insignificantly considerable to the evaluated environmental costs and capital investment. However, the use of this newly developed mathematical model depends on the source of energy production to confirm the feasibility and profitability of investment in coal-powered stations using environmental management accounting and marginal social cost approaches. AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to acknowledge the National Research Foundation and Durban University of Technology for financial support.

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Economics for the future – Beyond the superorganism

Cited by 75 publications

References 65 publications

Indicators of Complexity and Over-complexification in Global Food Systems

Indicators of Complexity and Over-complexification in Global Food Systems

Understanding Oil Cycle Dynamics to Design the Future Economy

Environmental costs estimation and mathematical model of marginal social cost: A case study of coal power plants

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