Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Abstract

Coccidioidomycosis, or Valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of Valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western US, putting more people at risk for contracting Valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and Valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a methodology to estimate economic impacts of Valley fever based on case counts. For our 2000-2015 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for Valley fever in the US were $400,000 per case and the annual average total cost was $3.9 billion per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for Valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by year 2090. By the end of the 21st century, Valley fever may cost $620,000 per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate-change attributable damages in the US.

Examining the Relationship between Climate Change and Vibriosis in the United States: Projected Health and Economic Impacts for the 21st Century

“… 54 and Gorris et al. 55 It yielded the following VSL values: in 2030, in 2050, in 2070, and in 2090 (in undiscounted 2018 U.S. dollars).…”

A Review of Coccidioides Research, Outstanding Questions in the Field, and Contributions by Women Scientists

“…Using human coccidioidomycosis data as a proxy for Coccidioides presence, Dr. Morgan Gorris and colleagues predict that by the end of the twenty-first century, warming temperatures across the dry, western US may cause the endemic region to expand north [ 51 ••]. This may cause a large increase in the number of people at risk for contracting coccidioidomycosis, the subsequent number of disease cases, and the financial burden of this disease [ 52 ]. In contrast, a separate analysis using Coccidioides presence data in a niche model found that by 2070, the geographical distribution of Coccidioides may contract, but the habitat suitability within already suitable locations will increase [ 32 ].…”

Humidity and low pH boost occurrence of Onygenales fungi in soil at global scale

“…Conversely, strains of Emergomyces and Cocciodioides spp. that are accounted as the major contributors to the infections against patients with HIV/AIDS, and the Coccidioidomycosis (or 'Valley Fever') (Schwartz et al 2018;McCotter et al 2018;Gorris et al 2021) that cause the majority of reported cases in the United States, were retrieved at the lowest percentage.…”