Economic shocks and civil conflict at the regional level

Hodler, Roland; Raschky, Paul A.

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2014.07.027

Cited by 72 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(21 reference statements)

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“…Table 9 shows results when we control for the potential persistence of the dependent variable, 20 for lags and leads of SPEI, and for an interaction of SPEI with its …rst lag.…”

Section: Robustnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the estimated impact of SPEI on NoD is only marginally signi…cant in Table 3, it is highly signi…cant when we introduce lagged values of NoD. Note further that 20 Given the long time dimension of our dataset (263 months on average) we employ standard …xed-e¤ects regression as the Nickell (1981) bias is negligible in our case. the inclusion of lags (Columns 3-6) and leads (Columns 10-12) of SPEI does not substantially a¤ect the estimated contemporaneous impact of SPEI either.…”

Section: Robustnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water scarcity and rioting: Disaggregated evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Almer

Laurent-Lucchetti

Oechslin

2017

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

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It is often purported that unusually dry conditions provoke riots by intensifying the competition for water. The present paper explores this hypothesis, using data from Sub-Saharan Africa. We rely on monthly data at the cell level (0:5 0:5 degrees), an approach that is tailored to the fact that riots are short-lived and local events. Using a drought index to proxy for deviations of the actual climatic water balance from the normal one, we …nd that a one-standard-deviation fall in the index (signaling drier conditions) raises the likelihood of a riot in a given cell and month by 8.5 percent. We further observe that the e¤ect of unusual dryness is substantially larger in cells that combine a low supply of blue water with signi…cant agricultural activity, a …nding that supports the relevance of the water-competition mechanism.JEL classi…cation: D74, O13

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“…Table 9 shows results when we control for the potential persistence of the dependent variable, 20 for lags and leads of SPEI, and for an interaction of SPEI with its …rst lag.…”

Section: Robustnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Robustnessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water scarcity and rioting: Disaggregated evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Almer

Laurent-Lucchetti

Oechslin

2017

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

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“…In contrast to these studies, we stress the importance of distinguishing between different age groups when analyzing population size. 4 Also closely linked to our study is the strand of literature that analyzes the effect of opportunity costs on the risk of civil conflicts (see, e.g., Miguel et al (2004), Dube and Vargas (2013) or Hodler and Raschky (2014)). The findings show that reduced opportunity costs raise the risk that conflicts occur.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict

Flückiger

Ludwig

2017

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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The presence of an exceptionally large youth population, i.e., a youth bulge, is often associated with an elevated risk of civil conflict. In this paper, we develop an instrumental variable approach in which the size of the youth cohorts in Sub-Saharan Africa are identified using variation in birth year drought incidence. Our results show that an increase in the size of the population group aged 15-19 raises the risk of low-intensity conflict. A one percent increase in the size of this age group augments the likelihood of civil conflict incidence (onset) by 2.3 (1.2) percentage points. On the other hand, we do not find any association between the size of the two adjacent youth cohorts, i.e. the population groups aged 10-14 and 20-24.JEL classification: D7, J1, Q1

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“…The need to respond to the political fall-out from the social impact of the economic shocks associated with the failed policies of Latin America's authoritarian regimes also helped initiate social protection. Economic shocks can contribute to conflict's intensification (Miguel et al 2004;Hodler and Raschky 2014). One mechanism might be higher unemployment that exacerbates previous grievances.…”

Section: Social Protectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Needs vs expediency: Poverty reduction and social development in post-conflict countries

Addison¹,

Gisselquist²,

Niño‐Zarazúa³

et al. 2015

WIDER Working Paper

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Conflict depletes all forms of human and social capital, as well as supporting institutions. The scale of the human damage can overwhelm public action, as there are many competing priorities and resources are often insufficient. What then should be the priorities for 'post-conflict' policy? Should it give, for example, higher priority to health or to livelihoods in allocating the resources available (financial, human, and institutional)? Should social protection be the main focus of effort and, if so, what form should it take? If trying to do everything amounts to doing nothing, then what should be the priorities over time, that guide the sequence of actions? This paper explores the issues-the opportunities but also the possible tensionsincluding those around the need to strengthen and sustain peace itself.

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Economic shocks and civil conflict at the regional level

Cited by 72 publications

References 17 publications

Water scarcity and rioting: Disaggregated evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Water scarcity and rioting: Disaggregated evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict

Needs vs expediency: Poverty reduction and social development in post-conflict countries

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