Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions

Schmidt-Thomé, Philipp; Greiving, Stefan; Kallio, Hilkka; Fleischhauer, Mark; Jarva, Jaana

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2006.01.024

Cited by 40 publications

(26 citation statements)

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“…Hence, it is reasonable that flood risk assessment should not merely be a scientific activity but a socio-and economicoriented approach that takes the social dimension of flood risk (Schmidt-Thomé et al, 2006), and, in particular, the stakeholders' risk perception, into account (Plattner et al, 2006a). Here, we do not understand risk perception in a narrow sense as the "intuitive judgement of individuals and groups of risks" (Slovic, 2000), but in a wider sense as the perception of the risk problem, including its causes, the possible mitigation strategies of the risk, and the related consequences (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

Buchecker

Salvini

Baldassarre

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions.The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

Buchecker

Salvini

Baldassarre

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…For both the hazard and vulnerability analysis a number of approaches and models of different complexity are available and many of them were used in scientific as well as applied flood risk analyses and on different scales. Examples of flood risk analyses are available on municipal level (Baddiley 2003;Grünthal et al 2006), catchment level (MURL 2000;ICPR 2001;Dutta et al 2003;Dutta et al 2006), on a national scale (Hall et al 2003;Rodda 2005) and European level (Schmidt-Thomé et al 2006). …”

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confidence: 99%

Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?

et al. 2008

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Applied flood risk analyses, especially in urban areas, very often pose the question how detailed the analysis needs to be in order to give a realistic figure of the expected risk. The methods used in research and practical applications range from very basic approaches with numerous simplifying assumptions up to very sophisticated, data and calculation time demanding applications both on the hazard and vulnerability part of the risk. In order to shed some light on the question of required model complexity in flood risk analyses and outputs sufficiently fulfilling the task at hand, a number of combinations of models of different complexity both on the hazard and vulnerability side were tested in a case study. The different models can be organized in a model matrix of different complexity levels: On the hazard side the approaches/models selected were A) linear interpolation of gauge water levels and intersection with a digital elevation model (DEM), B) a mixed 1D/2D hydraulic model with simplifying assumptions (LISFLOOD-FP) and C) a SaintVenant 2D zero-inertia hyperbolic hydraulic model considering the built environment and infrastructure. On the vulnerability side the models used for the estimation of direct damage to residential buildings are in order of increasing complexity: I) meso-scale stage-damage functions applied to CORINE land cover data, II) the rule-based meso-scale model FLEMOps+ using census data on the municipal building stock and CORINE land cover data and III) a rule-based microscale model applied to a detailed building inventory. Besides the inundation depths, the latter two models consider different building types and qualities as well as the level of private precaution and contamination of the floodwater. The models were applied in a municipality in southeast Germany, Eilenburg. It suffered extraordinary damage during the flood of August 2002, which was well documented as were the inundation extent and depths. These data provide an almost unique data set for the validation of flood risk analyses. The analysis shows that the combination of the 2 1D/2D-model and the meso-scale damage model FLEMOps+ performed best and provide the best compromise between data requirements, simulation effort, and an acceptable accuracy of the results. The more detailed approaches suffered from complex model setup, high data requirements, and long computation times.

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“…The scenarios in the present warn us for the future as well, since small changes in rainfall intensity can lead to a rapid increase in loss in urban areas due to the highest concentration of capital Morita, 2011;Zhou et al, 2012). Pluvial floods seem very serious and contribute to high physical loss all over the world; however, relatively few studies have been reported on this issue for present and also future climate (Seneviratne et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The basic features of hydrological models are to estimate hydrological parameters for a hazard event generally defined by its exceedance probability (return period). On the other hand, a loss model is a central idea for flood damage estimation (Merz et al, 2004) and the most common way of estimating direct damage amount is the use of depth-damage functions often termed as a susceptibility function or a vulnerability function (Dutta et al, 2003;Glade, 2003;ICPR, 2001;Jongman et al, 2012a;Kazama et al, 2009;Kelman and Spence, 2004;Kreibich et al, 2010;Rodda, 2005;Schmidt-Thomé et al, 2006;Smith, 1994;Ward et al, 2013). Some loss models are multi-parameter models based on several hazard parameters (flood depth, flow velocity, contamination etc.)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical model for economic damage from pluvial floods in Japan using rainfall data and socioeconomic parameters

Bhattarai

Yoshimura

Seto

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The assessment of flood risk is important for policymakers to evaluate damage and for disaster preparation. Large population densities and high property concentration make cities more vulnerable to floods and having higher absolute damage per year. A number of major cities in the world suffer from flood inundation damage every year. In Japan, approximately USD 1 billion in damage occurs annually due to pluvial floods only. The amount of damage was typically large in large cities, but regions with lower population density tended to have more damage per capita. Our statistical approach gives the probability of damage following every daily rainfall event and thereby the annual damage as a function of rainfall, population density, topographical slope and gross domestic product. Our results for Japan show reasonable agreement with area-averaged annual damage for the period 1993-2009. We report a damage occurrence probability function and a damage cost function for pluvial flood damage, which makes this method flexible for use in future scenarios and also capable of being expanded to different regions.

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Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions

Cited by 40 publications

References 1 publication

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?

Statistical model for economic damage from pluvial floods in Japan using rainfall data and socioeconomic parameters

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