Economic Risk Assessment by Weather-Related Heat Stress Indices for Confined Livestock Buildings: A Case Study for Fattening Pigs in Central Europe

Abstract

In the last decades, farm animals kept in confined and mechanically ventilated livestock buildings have been increasingly confronted with heat stress (HS) due to global warming. These adverse conditions cause a depression of animal health and welfare and a reduction of the performance up to an increase in mortality. To facilitate sound management decisions, livestock farmers need relevant arguments, which quantify the expected economic risk and the corresponding uncertainty. The economic risk was determined for the pig fattening sector based on the probability of HS and the calculated decrease in gross margin. The model calculation for confined livestock buildings showed that HS indices calculated by easily available meteorological parameters can be used for assessment quantification of indoor HS, which has been difficult to determine. These weather-related HS indices can be applied not only for an economic risk assessment but also for weather-index based insurance for livestock farms. Based on the temporal trend between 1981 and 2017, a simple model was derived to assess the likelihood of HS for 2020 and 2030. Due to global warming, the return period for a 90-percentile HS index is reduced from 10 years in 2020 to 3–4 years in 2030. The economic impact of HS on livestock farms was calculated by the relationship between an HS index based on the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the reduction of gross margin. From the likelihood of HS and this economic impact function, the probability of the economic risk was determined. The reduction of the gross margin for a 10-year return period was determined for 1980 with 0.27 € per year per animal place and increased by 20-fold to 5.13 € per year per animal place in 2030.

Smart Temperature and Humidity Control in Pig House by Improved Three-Way K-Means

“…In modern pig housing facilities, frequently used for intensive livestock production, various methods including natural or mechanical ventilation and the use of dehumidifiers are employed to regulate indoor conditions [16][17][18]. It is imperative in livestock buildings to establish and maintain an optimal and comfortable environment, as this directly impacts both production efficiency and animal welfare [19][20][21][22]. Environmental temperature and air humidity rank as the most influential climatic factors affecting pig production, with temperature fluctuations exerting a substantial influence on pigs' well-being.…”

Reduction of the Economic Risk by Adaptation Measures to Alleviate Heat Stress in Confined Buildings for Growing-Fattening Pigs Modelled by a Projection for Central Europe in 2030

“…In France, about 4 million broilers died [2]. For fattening pigs, Schauberger et al [15] determined the loss in gross margin for a 10-year return period in an Austrian case study with EUR 0.27 per year and animal place in 1980 and a 20-fold increase to EUR 5.13 per year and animal place in 2030. These economic losses are caused by an increase in the feed conversion ratio, a lower growth rate, and other productivity traits such as increasing mortality [3,[16][17][18][19].…”

“…Adaptation measures (AMs) have been proven effective to reduce HS in confined livestock buildings [15,20,21]. They can be grouped into measures adapting (1) the ventilation system to modify the thermodynamic properties of the inlet air (air temperature and humidity), (2) the building (e.g., insulation, orientation) [22], (3) the indoor equipment at the animal level to modify the indoor climate on a small scale (e.g., sprinkling and fogging systems, forced ventilation), and (4) the livestock management (e.g., thermotolerant breeds, feeding, design values of the ventilation system) [20].…”

“…We use the weather-VaR to describe the ER caused by HS on the gross margin of growing-fattening pigs. With this tool, the expected mean value of the reduction of the gross margin caused by global warming can be calculated but also the return period (10 or 20 years), taking into account the stochastic weather behaviour [15]. This paper describes a three-step process.…”

Plant responses to climate change, how global warming may impact on food security: a critical review

“…These include the extent of the adverse event, how frequently the sustainable temperature thresholds are likely to be crossed within the growing season, whether these extreme episodes exceed lethal temperatures, and the length of the event. Models, that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation have been developed with an eye towards the mitigation of yield losses (Ribeiro et al, 2020;Schauberger et al, 2021;Stella et al, 2021). Under a global warming scenario, the identification of the temperature thresholds for the major crop plants and their effects on yield is vital in predicting risk for food security (Zhao et al, 2017).…”