Economic Response to a Guaranteed Annual Income: Experience from Canada and the United States

Hum, Derek; Simpson, Wayne

doi:10.1086/298335

Cited by 73 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…It is also interesting to notice that in all five studied countries, the GDP reaches the highest impact earlier under the policy status quo scenario than under the universal basic income scenario (2020–21 and 2023–24, respectively). This result is in line with previous studies on assessing impacts of the universal basic income, which find that conditioning a public policy support to marginalised society groups can sooner produce higher impact in terms of GDP, income and employment (Akee, Copeland, Keeler, Angold, & Costello, ; Butcher, ; Colombino, ; Hum & Simpson, ; Kela, ; Nikiforos et al., ; Pareliussen et al., ). In the medium‐to‐long run, however, the positive effect remains below that of universal basic income policies.…”

Section: Simulation Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

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Universal basic income: A viable policy alternative?

Ciaian

Ivanov²,

Kancs

2019

World Economy

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Although the need for an efficient Roma integration policy is growing in Europe, surprisingly little robust scientific evidence regarding potential policy costs and expected benefits of alternative policy options has supported the policy design and implementation so far. The present study attempts to narrow this evidence gap and aims to shed light on long‐run economic, budgetary and fiscal effects of selected education and employment policies for the inclusion of the marginalised Roma in the EU. We employ a general equilibrium approach that allows us to assess not only the direct impact of alternative Roma integration policies but also to capture all induced feedback effects. Our simulation results suggest that although Roma integration policies would be costly for the public budget, in the medium‐to‐long run, economic, budgetary and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh short‐ to medium‐run Roma integration costs. Depending on the integration policy scenario and the analysed country, the full repayment of the integration policy investment (positive net present value) may be achieved after 7 to 9 years. In terms of the GDP, employment and earnings, the universal basic income scenario may have the highest potential impacts, particularly in the medium‐to‐long run.

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Section: Simulation Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Hum and Simpson () review research from five universal basic income experiments in Canada and the USA. In order to make results for different unconditional income transfer programmes comparable, the authors account for differences in the designs of policy experiments.…”

Section: Simulation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Universal basic income: A viable policy alternative?

Ciaian

Ivanov²,

Kancs

2019

World Economy

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“…Data are held by the Library and Archives Canada. At the conclusion of the Mincome program, some of the longitudinal survey data were collected into several data sets, used for the handful of academic papers published on Mincome in the 1980s and 1990s (i.e., Hum and Choudhry 1992;Hum and Simpson 1993;Prescott, Swidinsky, and Wilton 1986;Simpson and Hum 1991). However, due to limited resources it was decided that most survey data would be digitized for the Winnipeg site rather than the Dauphin and Manitoba sites.…”

Section: Survey Data and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This expense-particularly in the Canadian experiment-must be considered that much greater next to the somewhat limited contribution to knowledge they produced. Much was learned about the labor supply response (for summaries of the experiments, and the typically modest reductions in work effort, see Burtless 1986;Hum and Simpson 1993;Keeley 1981;Levine et al 2005;Widerquist 2005) and to a lesser extent about marital dissolution (Cain 1986;Cain and Wissoker 1990;Hannan and Tuma 1990). More recently, Evelyn Forget (2010Forget ( , 2011 has examined the health effects of the GAI in the Canadian context (Forget, Peden, and Strobel 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“More Normal than Welfare”: The Mincome Experiment, Stigma, and Community Experience

Calnitsky

2016

Canadian Review of Sociology

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Cet article traite de l'impact d'une expérience sociale menée dans les années 1970, l'Expérience du revenu annuel de base du Manitoba (MINCOME). J'examine le lieu de "saturation" de la MINCOME, la ville de Dauphin au Manitoba, où tous les habitantsétaient admissiblesà des versements de revenus annuels garantis pendant trois ans.À partir d'archives de récits qualitatifs des participants je montre que la conception et le discours autour de la MINCOME ont amené les participantsà voir les versements d'un oeil pragmatique, contrairement a la perspective moralisatrice qu'inspire le bien-être sociale. Conformémentà la théorie existante cet article constate que la participationà la MINCOME n'a pas produit de stigmate social. Plus largement, cetteétude discute de la faisabilité d'autres formes d'organisation socio-économiqueà travers une prise en compte des aspects moraux de la politiqueéconomique. La signification sociale de la MINCOMEétait suffisamment puissante pour que même les participants ayant des attitudes négativesà l'égard d'aides gouvernementales se sentirent capables de recevoir des versements de la MINCOME sans un sentiment de contradiction. En occultant les distinctions entre les "pauvres méritants" et les "pauvres non-méritants",

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“…11 14 15 Furthermore, response and follow up rates were inversely related to the generosity of the interventions. [16][17][18] Income maintenance was reported to modestly decrease workforce participation. [19][20][21][22][23][24] There were no consistent eVects on other Small, one-oV prizes v 20 larger annual payments outcomes that would aVect health indirectly, such as marital stability, nutrition or education, and these findings are described in detail elsewhere.…”

Section: Income Maintenance Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Randomised studies of income supplementation: a lost opportunity to assess health outcomes

Connor

Rodgers

Priest

1999

Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health

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Background-Despite the wealth of evidence linking low income to ill health, there is little information from randomised studies on how much and how quickly these risks can be reversed by improvements in income. Objective-To conduct a systematic review of randomised studies of income supplementation, with particular reference to health outcomes. Design-Extensive searches of electronic databases and contact with previous authors. As well as searching for trials that were specifically designed to assess the eVects of increased income, studies of winners and losers of lotteries were also sought: if winning is purely chance, such studies are, in eVect, randomised trials of increased income. Results-Ten relevant studies were identified, all conducted in North America, mostly in the late 1960s and 1970s. Five trials were designed to assess the eVects of income supplementation on workforce participation and randomised a total of 10 000 families to 3-5 years of various combinations of minimum income guarantees and reduced tax rates. Two trials were designed to assess re-oVending rates in recently released prisoners and randomised a total of 2400 people to 3-6 months of benefits. One trial was designed to assess housing allowances and randomised 3500 families to three years of income supplements. One trial assessed the health eVects of 12 months of income supplementation in 54 people with severe mental illness. Finally, one study compared three groups of people who won diVerent amounts of money in a state lottery. In all these studies the interventions resulted in increases in income of at least one fifth. However, no reliable analyses of health outcome data are available. Conclusions-Extensive opportunities to reliably assess the eVects of increases in income on health outcomes have been missed. Such evidence might have increased the consideration of potential health eVects during deliberations about policies that have major implications for income, such as taxation rates, benefit policies, and minimum wage levels. Randomised evidence could still be obtained with innovative new studies, such as trials of full benefit uptake or prospective studies of lottery winners in which diVerent sized winnings are paid in monthly instalments over many years. (J Epidemiol Community Health 1999;53:725-730) The relation between low socioeconomic circumstances and the risks of poor health is well established.

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Economic Response to a Guaranteed Annual Income: Experience from Canada and the United States

Cited by 73 publications

References 27 publications

Universal basic income: A viable policy alternative?

Universal basic income: A viable policy alternative?

“More Normal than Welfare”: The Mincome Experiment, Stigma, and Community Experience

Randomised studies of income supplementation: a lost opportunity to assess health outcomes

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