Economic Policy Uncertainty and Manufacturing Value-added Exports

Zhao, Tingting

doi:10.5755/j01.ee.33.1.27373

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 40 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The coefficient of our key explanatory variable lnEPU is negative and statistically significant, indicating that EPU in destination markets significantly suppresses the exports of mechanical and electrical products, which verifies Hypothesis 1. This conclusion is consistent with the findings of the literature [ 38 , 39 ].…”

Section: Empirical Analysis and Findingssupporting

confidence: 94%

Economic policy uncertainty, intra-industry trade, and China’s mechanical and electrical product exports

Liu,

Zhu,

2024

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Economic policy uncertainty has had an important impact on trade and sustainable economic development. Especially in some specific industries, uncertainty has increased dramatically. The extant related literature mainly analyzes the nexus between uncertainty and trade across different industries and focuses less on a specific industry. Using Chinese customs data on HS 8-digit products over the period of 2000–2013, this paper first investigates the impact of both foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and domestic intra-industry trade on China’s mechanical and electrical product exports to 23 trading partners and applies pooled OLS regressions to conduct an empirical study. This paper finds that EPU has a significant inhibition effect on mechanical and electrical product exports; conversely, intra-industry trade can both significantly promote exports and alleviate the inhibition effect of EPU. In addition, the export impact of EPU varied with different trade patterns. It can significantly inhibit processing exports, while it has no effect on ordinary exports. The results of this paper indicate that in the context of increasing uncertainty, our findings could have far-reaching policy implications for China to build a new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation.

show abstract

Section: Empirical Analysis and Findingssupporting

confidence: 94%

Economic policy uncertainty, intra-industry trade, and China’s mechanical and electrical product exports

Liu,

Zhu,

2024

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…If this decline in trade policy uncertainty is caused by China’s accession to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), then the intensive margin will dominate [ 10 ]. At the same time, the impact of decreasing TPU on the trade sector is also reflected in many aspects such as decreasing prices of export products [ 9 ], improving the quality of import products [ 11 ] and domestic value added [ 12 ], which also has a positive impact on China’s import expansion that should not be ignored [ 11 ]. Second, for the macro effects of TPU, Pierce and Schott [ 13 ] used business panel data from the U.S. Census Bureau from 1990–2007 to find that the PNTR preferences provided by the U.S. to China severely hurt U.S. manufacturing jobs, and the greater the TPU faced by the industries, the greater the employment losses suffered after the tariff cuts.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach

Yi-ping

Zhang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The impact of regional trade shocks on population health has been a topic of interest in health economics in recent years. Unfortunately, there are few studies directly discussing the impact of regional trade shocks caused by China’s WTO accession on the health of Chinese residents, which is essential to explore the connection between a country´s opening to international trade and the health of its residents. Taking China’s accession to the WTO as a quasi-natural experiment, based on the micro individual samples of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1993 to 2011, this paper, for the first time, studies the impact of regional tariff uncertainty caused by China’s accession to the WTO on the health of Chinese residents and its mechanisms by adopting the Difference-in-Difference (DID) model. The study finds that compared with the areas initially facing low tariff uncertainty, the areas with high initial tariff uncertainty have a greater negative impact on the health of residents after China acceded to WTO, which means that the trade shock caused damage to the health of residents. After a series of tests on the effectiveness and robustness of DID, this conclusion is still valid. The impact of the trade shock on residents’ health varies with the type of residence, gender, and geographical location, and there is a nonlinear relationship. Further mechanism tests show that the trade shock has worsened the health status of residents through rural migration channels, working hours channels, and pollution emission channels. This study provides micro evidence for objectively evaluating the health effects of trade shock and has important implication for considering the health loss of Chinese residents in the process of trade liberalization.

show abstract

“…Today, the EPU indices for 28 countries have been produced. The impacts of EPU on export flows can be classified into the studies of a group of countries (e.g., Aslan & Acikgoz, 2021;Borojo, Yushi et al, 2023;Gül & Gupta, 2021;Jia et al, 2020;Khalfaoui et al, 2022;Zhao, 2022) and the studies of individual countries (e.g., Hailemariam & Ivanovski, 2021;He et al, 2021;Hu & Liu, 2021;Liu, Zhang, & Li, 2020). Both time series and panel data estimation methods have been employed, mostly covering the period after 2000.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are the global economic policy uncertainties blocking the export flows of emerging markets? A heterogeneous panel SVAR analysis

Aslan

Acikgoz

2023

Econ. J. Emerg. Mark.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose – This paper examines the effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on emerging markets (EMs) export flows. Methods – This paper uses a structural panel vector autoregression modeling approach to capture country interdependencies and the likelihood that EMs’ responses are heterogeneous and dynamic. An unbalanced monthly panel data from 2003:01 to 2019:12 is used to estimate impulse responses and variance decompositions not only for the entire panel data but also for each EM. Findings – The results show that global EPU has a persistent and negative effect on exports, while foreign income and the exchange rate increase export volumes in EMs. Given the different responses of EMs to uncertainty shocks, the second-stage regression estimates suggest that greater sectoral export diversification in an EM can potentially reduce the unfavorable impact of global EPU on their export flows. Meanwhile, the higher technology content of exports leads to a multiplication of global EPU transmissions. Implication – These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the transmission effect of global EPU in EMs by considering country heterogeneity. Originality – This is the sole paper examining the factors that mitigate or amplify GEPU impacts on export flows by estimating second-step ordinary least square equations.

show abstract

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Manufacturing Value-added Exports

Cited by 7 publications

References 40 publications

Economic policy uncertainty, intra-industry trade, and China’s mechanical and electrical product exports

Economic policy uncertainty, intra-industry trade, and China’s mechanical and electrical product exports

China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach

Are the global economic policy uncertainties blocking the export flows of emerging markets? A heterogeneous panel SVAR analysis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About