Economic Performance Paths of CEE Countries and the EU-27 in 2000–2022

Abstract

Research background An analysis of the similarity of countries’ economic developments can provide an important premise for both the assessment of current international economic relations and the long-term prediction of their economic development potential. Purpose The paper presents research results on the paths of economic performance of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in 2000–2022. As a reference object the EU-27 aggregate has been considered. A supplementary analysis of the impact of the last crises on the economic situation of the CEE countries was provided. Research methodology The analysis is carried out based on the authors’ method of multivariate analysis, where two positioning criteria are applied: an object’s distance from the optimal point and an object’s heterogeneity. A comparative analysis of economic performance paths dependency is provided using a first-order correlation coefficient for time series. Results It has been found that there has been a significant improvement in the macroeconomic situation of the CEE countries over the last two decades. Changes of economic performance in these countries were very similar, while the heterogeneity of their macroeconomic indicators was diminishing, due to nominal, real and institutional convergence. The CEE countries reacted in a similar way both to the worldwide economic crisis in 2009 and to the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus in 2020. It has been confirmed that the first of these crises had a greater negative impact on the economic situation of these countries. Novelty The originality of the study carried out lies, on the one hand, in the use of the author’s research method and, on the other hand, in the presentation of the impact of economic crises on the economic situation of a selected group of countries in the long term. The added value of the study is an analysis of the correlations of paths describing the economic situation of individual countries.