Economic modeling of touristic services demand in the regions

Abstract

Considering the important role of tourism in the socio-economic development of regions, the need for information and modeling of ways to increase demand for tourism services and tourism development is being updated. The article uses methods of analytical, logical, comparative analysis and systematic approach to study trends in demand for tourist services in Ukraine. Econometric modeling analyzes the demand for tourism services by the level of income and expenditures of the population in 2018. Trends in demand for tourism services in 2018 in terms of income and expenditure of the population with the use of the Tornquist econometric model have been analyzed. It is proposed to use the decile groups of the population for analyzing income and expenditure by the level of income, total income per capita, the level of household expenditure relative to income, the percentage of tourism expenditure by households, the expenditure on tourism and the elasticity of tourism demand. Average values of the population’s expenditures on tourism were established, which helped to determine the elasticity of effective demand for each decile group. The more than one unit of elasticity of effective tourism demand for each decile group indicated that tourism services for domestic households belong to the group of luxury goods and services. It should be noted that in the following decile income groups of households there is a decrease in elasticity. It means that when income tends to increase indefinitely, elasticity coefficients fall, and this indicates a stabilization of costs of this type. In this case, the percentage of households in each decile group that recorded the costs of organized tourism in their budgets and the value of the probability of household participation in this form of recreation was determined based on an estimated probability model. An analysis of the values of income elasticity indicators in each income decile group has shown that increasing household incomes contribute to increased demand for tourism services and an increase in the share of expenditures for these purposes in household budgets.