Economic Justification of an Investment Project in Vegetable Growing Based on a Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

Introduction. The practice of investment design in the agricultural sector indicates the need for comprehensive consideration of various types of uncertainty in the process of evaluating the effectiveness of financial investments in investment projects using various tools and methods, which is of particular importance for protected soil vegetable growing, as one of the most capital-intensive industries. The domestic greenhouse business is an attractive area of direct investment, since its development is the main factor in the growth of domestic consumption and import substitution of vegetable products. In this article, the economic justification of the investment project for the organization of greenhouse vegetable growing is carried out on the basis of a comprehensive sensitivity analysis used to assess risks. Methodology. In the process of assessing the economic efficiency and investment attractiveness of the project, one-factor and two-factor analysis of the variation of parameters, as well as the method of critical points were used. Results. Using the example of a real investment project, the influence of a large number of different variations of key parameters on the resulting project performance indicators was analyzed, which made it possible to determine their marginal (critical) values. The results obtained make it possible to prevent potential problems and adjust indicators in the process of project implementation under conditions of uncertainty. Conclusions. Sensitivity analysis of an investment project is an important component of the economic justification of an investment project, which enables to predict risks and make decisions for its successful implementation.