Economic Decision Problems for Flood Prevention

Dantzig, D. van

doi:10.2307/1911632

Cited by 245 publications

(182 citation statements)

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“…These protection levels are based on a cost-benefit analysis (Van Danzig 1956), which was carried out after the 1953 flood disaster by the then Delta Committee for the economically most important part of the country. The results of this costbenefit analysis were translated into protection standards for the flood defenses and subsequently extrapolated to the remainder of the country.…”

Section: The Present Netherlands' Flood Risk Management Policy: Tippimentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Klijn

Bruijn

Knoop

et al. 2011

AMBIO

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Climate change and sea level rise urge lowlying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands' current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of 'policy tipping points'. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.

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Section: The Present Netherlands' Flood Risk Management Policy: Tippimentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Klijn

Bruijn

Knoop

et al. 2011

AMBIO

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“…. , r were such that the smoothest possible interpolation scheme was obtained, see (19). Extending this to the discretization of the diffusion operator, we now require that: This is guaranteed by the choices in (35).…”

Section: (35)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This concept of economic optimisation was established by Van Dantzig [19] in the aftermath of the flooding disaster that hit the Netherlands in 1953. Van Dantzig's model was deterministic and discrete in time and was later improved by Eijgenraam [9] to properly account for economic growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ENO-Based Method for Second-Order Equations and Application to the Control of Dike Levels

Pijl

Oosterlee

2011

J Sci Comput

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This work aims to model the optimal control of dike heights. The control problem leads to so-called Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) variational inequalities, where the dike-increase and reinforcement times act as input quantities to the control problem. The HJB equations are solved numerically with an Essentially Non-Oscillatory (ENO) method. The ENO methodology is originally intended for hyperbolic conservation laws and is extended to deal with diffusion-type problems in this work. The method is applied to the dike optimisation of an island, for both deterministic and stochastic models for the economic growth.

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“…Current safety standards have their origin in early political decisions that were based on historical probabilities of extreme water levels and cost-benefit analysis of flood defences policies (Van Dantzig 1956;see also Eijgenraam 2006). These decisions took account of the variation of the assets-at-risk across the Netherlands (Ten Brinke and Bannink 2004).…”

Section: Safety Standardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise

et al. 2008

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What could happen to the Netherlands if, in 2030, the sea level starts to rise and eventually, after 100 years, a sea level of 5 m above current level would be reached? This question is addressed by studying literature, by interviewing experts in widely differing fields, and by holding an expert workshop on this question. Although most experts believe that geomorphology and current engineering skills would enable the country to largely maintain its territorial integrity, there are reasons to assume that this is not likely to happen. Social processes that precede important political decisions -such as the growth of the belief in the reality of sea level rise and the framing of such decisions in a proper political context (policy window) -evolve slowly. A flood disaster would speed up the decision-making process. The shared opinion of the experts surveyed is that eventually part of the Netherlands would be abandoned.

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Economic Decision Problems for Flood Prevention

Cited by 245 publications

References 0 publications

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

An ENO-Based Method for Second-Order Equations and Application to the Control of Dike Levels

Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise

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