Economic burden of breast cancer prevalence by 2030 in India: Projections using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model

Abstract

Background Breast cancer is an important public health issue in India comprising 28 percent of all diagnosed cancers with a high economic burden. This study provides a new way to predict the number of patients with breast cancer (based in prevalence rates) and estimated its economic burden in India based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Methods Data on the number of patients with breast cancer in India from 2000 to 2019 (prevalence) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease databases. The ARIMA model was used to fit and predict the number of patients with breast cancer (prevalence) till 2030. The direct and indirect economic burden of breast cancer was estimated by the bottom-up approach and the human capital approach, respectively. Results The results of coefficient of determination (0.99), mean absolute percentage error (25%), mean absolute error (1794.555), and root mean squared error (2233.528) showed that the ARIMA (2,2,0) model fitted well. Akaike information criterion (543.13) and Bayesian information criterion (546.69) indicated the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was reliable when analyzing our data. The result of the relative error of prediction (0.23%) also suggested that the model predicted well. The number of patients with breast cancer from 2019 to 2030 was predicted to be about 1.12 million, 1.18 million, 1.25 million, 1.32 million, 1.38 million, 1.44 million, 1.51 million, 1.56 million, 1.62 million, 1.68 million, 1.74 million, and 1.80 million respectively. The total economic burden of breast cancer from 2019 to 2030 was estimated to be $8.16 billion, $9.06 billion, $10.01 billion, $11.01 billion, $12.05 billion, $13.16 billion, $14.36 billion, $15.66 billion, $17.08 billion, $18.6 billion, $20.23 billion respectively. Conclusion In India, the number of people with breast cancer and its financial burden will both keep rising. Between 2020 and 2030, India will see an average annual increase in the number of breast cancer patients of 0.05 million (5.6 per cent). In the meantime, an average of $19.55 billion more would be spent annually on breast cancer in India.