Economic and Mathematical Modeling of Russia’s Economic Security in the Period Under Sanctions

Abstract

For the study, the time period of introducing economic sanctions against the Russian Federation was selected. In consideration are taken the data of Rosstat in terms of finding the values of indicators of our state’s economic security (2013–2017). A correlation and regression analysis of this system, consisting of 15 indicators, was carried out. An economic-mathematical model of the sanctions impact on the economic security of Russia was compiled. To solve this problem, the authors used a correlation-regression analysis, the regression equation was found and statistical significance of the constructed model was substantiated. The findings were recommended to specialists in the sphere of improving the state’s economic security.

The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on the Regional Economic Security Indicator

“…A positive relationship was revealed between the GRP per capita growth index and the main production factors: the index of growth in the value of fixed assets, as well as the value of fixed assets in the period t-1 at only 10% significance level; the index of investment growth in fixed assets, the value of fixed assets in the period t-1. These findings align with results from prior research (Smirnova and Listopad, 2020). The index of growth in the share of employed in the total number of the population and the share of the employed in the period t-1.…”

“…Similar results were obtained in a study that found that in agricultural regions, the availability of human capital contradictorily reduces economic growth (Cadil, Petkovova, and Blatna, 2014). In contrast to the results of the study (Smirnova and Listopad, 2020), our models showed a negative relationship between economic growth and the manufacturing industry. This result may be related to the problems of socio-economic development of Russian regions specializing in the agro-industrial complex described in the literature, as well as the problems of «old industrial regions» reflected in the research of Russian scientists (Sorokina and Latov, 2018).…”

“…It should be noted that, as in the study (Smirnova and Listopad, 2020), the relationship between GRP per capita and R&D expenditures turned out to be insignificant. There is a negative relationship between the growth index GRP per capita and the share of revenue of organizations in the agricultural sector, which suggests that economic growth is declining in regions where agriculture dominates the economy.…”

“…Authors (Antamoshkina and Rogachev, 2020) use the expert method of analyzing hierarchies to assess the food security of the Russian Federation and its regions. Authors (Smirnova and Listopad, 2020) use the correlation method to assess the relationship between economic security indicators such as physical capital, investment in fixed assets, share manufacturing industry in the economy, life expectancy, R&D expenses, income level, inflation, crime rate, external and internal debt. They also use regression modeling for asses the impact of this factors on GRP as an indicator of economic security to identify areas for the development of measures to ensure economic security in Russian Federation Regions from 2003 to 2017.…”