Economic and Logistic Regression Analysis for Verifying of Validity of the Regeneration Project Policy for the Zones Vulnerable to Natural Disaster

Abstract

There are 1,210 Zones vulnerable to Natural Disaster in Korea until 2012. If it is designated as 'the Zones Vulnerable to Natural Disaster' some budgets are assigned to repair and restoration. But it is difficult to predict the natural disaster, so the overall correspond strategies of the natural disasters are needed as aver. We tried to have expedient B/C analysis in different 20 districts and analyzed the difference of qualitative analysis effects". And we try to confirm the key points that need to manage the related works. To know these facts we analyzed how the qualitative elements effect to The B/C score using logistic regression analysis. According to this analysis, the average B/C score was 2.77 and it means there are average 2.77 B/C ratio. We analyzed the effects of the results based on the B/C 3.0. Related to the policy parts, the districts that have above 3.0 B/C score, overcome mental shocks easily, and they supported the policy more than any other districts, and the results was much better. According to the logistic regression analysis when the policy rationality increased, the probability of the B/C 3.0 score was more than 154%. The policy appropriateness was 52%, policy support was 66% and the mental shock overcome was 50% increased. Therefore the B/C results were related to the policy parts more than policy results.Key words : Benefit-Cost ratio, Logistic Regression Analysis, the Zones Vulnerable to Natural Disaster