Econometric Modelling of Tourist Flows Dynamics

Barna, Marta Yuriivna; Myronov, Yuriy

doi:10.25140/2410-9576-2017-1-4(12)-165-170

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 4 publications

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“…Anhelko (2014) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the development of the tourism industry in Ukraine, identifying its features, issues, and prospects for growth as an important sector of the economy and social sphere. Barna and Myronov (2018) 2022) estimated the economic impact of terrorism, corruption, and uncertainty on tourist flows using a combination of a gravity model and an input-output model. Sichka (2016) analyzed the state of the tourism market development in Ukraine and the influence of the tourism sector on the country's economy, identified issues and outlined prospects for the development of the tourism market based on the analysis of tourist flows.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective Statistical Study of Dependencies in The Formation of Tourist Flows

Cherchyk,

Begun,

Khumarova

et al. 2023

ees

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Introduction. The activity of tourism establishments takes place in conditions of intense competition and changing dynamics of the tourism market influenced by various factors. The phenomenon of tourism lies in its complexity and high sensitivity to changes in the external environment. In order to determine the directions for the development of the tourism industry, it is necessary to understand the factors that influence the formation of tourist flows and forecast their changes in the defined perspective, which justifies the relevance of applying statistical research methods. Aim and tasks. The aim of the study: based on statistical information and methods of statistical analysis, to identify the dynamics of changes in tourist flows during specific periods of the new reality and to refute or confirm the hypotheses put forward in the research. Main tasks are: to identify periods of new reality characterized by special conditions of tourist flows formation; to formulate research hypotheses; to identify features of major trends in tourist flows for confirmation or refutation of the proposed hypotheses. Results. According to the developed methodology, periods were identified according to one leading feature that could form the trend of tourist activity in Ukraine for: the period of development of stabilization and economic growth (2000-2008); the period of coverage of the economic crisis and its relative overcoming (2009-2013); Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) period and subsequent stabilization of economic growth (2014-2019); period of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic downturn, isolation (2020-2021); martial law (since February 24, 2022). The periods identified in the study formed excellent conditions for tourism, which affected the volume of tourist flows, as a result of which the forecast indicators will not correspond to the actual ones. Domestic tourism flows are more influenced by GDP per person, while outbound tourism flows are more influenced by available income per person. Conclusions. The applied methods of mathematical forecasting allowed for the verification of the hypotheses regarding the causes that influenced or did not influence tourist flows as the resulting indicator. The general outcome of the research is the confirmation of the hypotheses proposed, which position the tourism industry as particularly susceptible to the influences of various factors that can significantly impact tourism activity both in the context of tourist flow formation and the priorities of tourism enterprises' operations.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective Statistical Study of Dependencies in The Formation of Tourist Flows

Cherchyk,

Begun,

Khumarova

et al. 2023

ees

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Моделі Прогнозування Туристичного Попиту

Румянцева

2023

Економіка та суспільство

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В статті проведено аналіз моделей прогнозування туристичного попиту. Складність туристичної галузі, сполучена з впливом різноманітних економічних, соціальних, політичних, екологічних та культурних факторів, створює значні труднощі для точного прогнозування туристичного попиту. Дослідження моделей прогнозування туристичного попиту є важливим завданням, що має вирішальне значення для сталого розвитку та успішної конкуренції в галузі туризму. Актуальність цієї теми визначається потребами галузі у точних та передбачуваних стратегіях, спрямованих на задоволення потреб сучасного туриста. Туризм використовує різні підходи до прогнозування, які можна розділити на кількісні, засновані на математичних розрахунках та якісних методах, які, у свою чергу, можуть бути різними видами експертних оцінок. Для здійснення правильного вибору методу прогнозування в сфері туризму слід перш за все враховувати наявні ресурси (економічні, практичні, людські) та їх можливий вплив на обрані методи прогнозування на етапі їх вибору. Крім того, рекомендується орієнтуватися на існуючі дані про переваги та недоліки конкретних методик, а також враховувати основні вимоги до створення моделей.

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Econometric Modelling of Tourist Flows Dynamics

Cited by 2 publications

References 4 publications

Retrospective Statistical Study of Dependencies in The Formation of Tourist Flows

Retrospective Statistical Study of Dependencies in The Formation of Tourist Flows

Моделі Прогнозування Туристичного Попиту

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