Econometric Modelling Of Time Series Relationship Between Fertility And Income For The Russian Population: Methodological Issues

Abstract

Finding determinants of demographic processes is a highly topical issue in countries with negative demographic trends. Our research was aimed at studying the relationships between fertility and income indicators in Russia. The period under review was 2000 to 2016. To explore the correlation between the time series, we used the methodology of estimating trend deviation. We applied analytical smoothing to model trends, estimating regression models. To assess the strength of relationship between the time series, we analysed correlation between regressions' residuals. The results of our analysis showed no relationship between people's incomes and fertility rates. The research we carried out into time series dynamics did not confirm the results of other studies based on static data. Accordingly, this raises questions about the methodology for analyzing the relationship between dynamic processes with a high volatility of input data. Evidently to receive reliable and stable results, multidimensional analysis methods should be integrated into the study of relationships between dynamic time series, including preliminary multi-dimensional data classification. This will enable carrying out analysis on homogenous territorial or temporal segments, which would be more methodologically sound.

ECMS 2019 Proceedings edited by Mauro Iacono, Francesco Palmieri, Marco Gribaudo, Massimo Ficco

“…We analyzed the correlation between five different fertility resources and the birth rate in our previous study (Bagirova and Shubat 2018). A statistically significant positive correlation was found only on indicators of reproductive resources.…”

“…The impact of economic factors on birth rates is estimated differently (Balbo, Billari and Mills 2013;Shubat and Bagirova 2018). Some researchers believe that the improvement of the economic situation and the economic conditions of life in a country contributes to an increase in birth rates (Martin 2004).…”