Econometric model for forecasting oil production in OECD member states

Abstract

In this article we present an econometric model of oil production forecast at OECD member level that will allow decision makers but also other oil product stakeholders to be responsible for oil production in OECD member states. This responsibility can be perceived from several perspectives: economic, social, environmental, political, military etc. In order to be able to find the ideal formula for our calculation, we went through the specialized literature and brought elements of analysis during the research through several econometric paths traveled by other researchers and who provided us with support for our research. Before proceeding technically, in order to understand the urgency of this approach and of this study, we also discussed how oil and natural gas are explored, exploited and extracted from the underground deposits. We considered that the proposed model could be improved in the future so as to portray certain geopolitical or economic factors, determinants for oil production, such as embargoes, periods of armed conflict in the main extraction areas or times of financial crisis and the decline of financial markets.

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