Ecological niche models applied to post-megafire vegetation restoration in the context of climate change

Carrillo-García, Cristina; Girola-Iglesias, Lucas; Guijarro, Mercedes; Hernando, Carmen; Madrigal, Javier; Mateo, Rubén G.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158858

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 102 publications

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“…The key role of wildfires as a driver of the floristic composition, structure and dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems has long been emphasized (Di Pasquale et al., 2004; Naveh, 1975; Verdú & Pausas, 2007). However, the combined effect of wildfire and climate change on current plant community dynamics is poorly understood (Buhk et al., 2007; Carrillo‐García et al., 2023; Fernández‐García et al., 2020; Quézel & Médail, 2003), mainly due to the scarcity of long‐term vegetation monitoring studies and large‐scale climate‐change experiments. Particularly, tipping points that may force vegetation and biome reorganizations after crossing fire‐impact thresholds are difficult to detect on short temporal scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Schwörer,

Morales‐Molino,

Gobet

et al. 2024

Journal of Ecology

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Worldwide, large wildfires are becoming increasingly common, leading to economic damages and threatening ecosystems and human health. Under future climate change, more frequent fire disturbance may push ecosystems into non‐forested alternative stable states. Fire‐prone ecosystems such as those in the Mediterranean Basin are expected to be particularly vulnerable, but the position of tipping points is unclear. We compare long‐term palaeoecological data from Sardinia with output from a process‐based dynamic vegetation model to investigate the mechanisms controlling the complex interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation in the past and the future. Our results show that past vegetation changes from Erica‐shrublands to mixed evergreen‐broadleaved Quercus ilex‐dominated forests were driven by a climate‐induced fire regime shift. By simulating vegetation dynamics under varying fire regimes, we could reproduce Holocene vegetation trajectories and mechanistically identify tipping points. Without an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, we simulate future expansion of fire‐prone Mediterranean maquis and increasing fire occurrence. Similarly, high anthropogenic ignition frequencies and plantations of non‐native, highly flammable trees could induce a shift to fire‐adapted Erica shrublands. However, our simulations indicate that if global warming can be kept below 2°C, Quercus ilex forests will be able to persist and effectively reduce fire occurrences and impacts, making them a valuable restoration target in Mediterranean ecosystems. Synthesis. By combining long‐term records of ecosystem change with a dynamic vegetation model, we show that past climate‐driven fire regime shifts were the main driver of vegetation change, creating alternative stable states that persisted over centuries. Projected future climate change exceeding Holocene variability leads to pronounced vegetation changes and increased fire risks in our simulations, requiring new fire management strategies to maintain current ecosystem services.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Schwörer,

Morales‐Molino,

Gobet

et al. 2024

Journal of Ecology

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Biodiversity conservation and management of lake wetlands based on the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of crane habitats

Zhang,

Wang,

Gong

et al. 2024

Journal of Environmental Management

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Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas

Torres

López-Tobar

Tipán-Torres

et al. 2023

Forests

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Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) is a species with great economic interest worldwide and is classified as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN. Deforestation and climate change are the main hazards to this species. Therefore, it is vital to describe possible changes in distribution patterns under current and future climatic conditions, as they are important for their monitoring, conservation, and use. In the current study, we predict, for the very first time, the potential distribution of Mahogany based on data that reflect the total distribution of the species, climatic and edaphic variables, and a consensus model that combines the results of three statistical techniques. The obtained model was projected to future climatic conditions considering two general circulation models (GCM), under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) for 2070. Predictions under current climatic conditions indicated wide adequate areas in Central American countries such as Mexico and demonstrated a coverage of up to 28.5% within the limits of the protected areas. Under future scenarios, drastic reductions were observed in different regions, particularly in Venezuela, Perú, and Ecuador, with losses of up to 56.0%. On the other hand, an increase in suitable areas for the species within protected areas was also detected. The results of this study are certainly useful for identifying currently unrecorded populations of Mahogany, as well as for identifying locations that are likely to be suitable both now and in the future for conservation management planning. The methodology proposed in this work is able to be used for other forest species in tropical zones as a tool for conducting dynamic conservation and restoration strategies that consider the effects of climate change.

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Ecological niche models applied to post-megafire vegetation restoration in the context of climate change

Cited by 7 publications

References 102 publications

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Biodiversity conservation and management of lake wetlands based on the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of crane habitats

Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas

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