Ecological Niche Modeling of the Main Forest-Forming Species in the Caucasus

Abstract

Background: Ecological niche modeling of the main forest-forming species within the same geographic range contributes significantly to understanding the coexistence of species and the regularities of formation of their current spatial distribution. The main abiotic and biotic environmental variables, as well as species dispersal capability, affecting the spatial distribution of the main forest-forming species in the Caucasus, have not been sufficiently studied.Methods: We conducted studies within the physiographic boundaries of the Caucasus, including Russian Federation, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Our studies focused on ecological niche modeling of pure fir, spruce, pine, beech, hornbeam, and birch forests through species distribution modeling and the concept of the BAM (Biotic-Abiotic-Movement) diagram. We selected 648 geographic records of pure forests occurrence. ENVIREM and SoilGrids databases, statistical tools in R, Maxent were used to assess the influence of abiotic, biotic, and movement factors on the spatial distribution of the forest-forming species.Results: Geographic expression of fundamental ecological niches of the main forest-forming species depended mainly on topographic conditions and water regime. Competitor influence reduced the potential ranges of the studied species by 1.2–1.7 times to the geographic expression of their realized ecological niches. Movement factor significantly limited the areas suitable for pure forests (by 1.2–1.8 times compared with geographic expression of realized ecological niches), except for birch forests.Conclusion: Distribution maps, modeled by abiotic, biotic variables and movement factor, were the closest to the real distribution of the forest-forming species in the Caucasus. Biotic and movement factors should be considered in modeling studies of forest ecosystems if models are to have biological meaning and reality.