Ecological Niche Modeling of Invasive Macrophyte (Urochloa subquadripara) and Co-occurrence with Natives

Abstract

Invasive macrophytes are considered problematic in natural environments and hydroelectric reservoirs. Climate changes, the occurrence of watercourses, and biotic interactions influence the biological invasion of macrophytes. Native species can correlate with invasives positively or negatively. Urochloa subquadripara is an invasive in natural or disturbed habitats co-occurring with the natives Eichhornia crassipes and Salvinia minima. Aquatic plant communities can be altered by climate change, so species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools for predicting in-vaded areas. This work aimed to make an SDM for U. subquadripara correlating with the poten-tial distribution of native species E. crassipes and S. minima. Occurrence data for U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima were collected from databases and in consultation with the published literature. Parameters encompassing biological information of the species were entered into the CLIMEX software and used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI). The species co-occurrence was performed based on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM), and weights were assigned using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). It was observed that U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima have a higher occurrence in tropical and subtropical regions; however, it is predicted that, from climatic changes, these species may move to high latitudes. According to climate change, the risk of invasion by U. subquadripara in the northern hemisphere is mainly in lakes, while in the southern hemisphere, the areas conducive to invasions are rivers and reservoirs. In general, emerging and floating macrophyte species such as U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima will be favored, causing suppression of submerged species. Therefore, identifying the potential distribution of these species allows the creation of pre-invasion intervention strategies.