Ecological niche modeling, niche overlap, and good old Rabinowitz’s rarities applied to the conservation of gymnosperms in a global biodiversity hotspot

Quiroga, María Paula; Souto, Cintia P.

doi:10.1007/s10980-022-01502-z

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…Numerous studies have reported that plant species that occupy a large geographic range also occupy different environmental niches ( Cardillo et al 2019 ; Kambach et al 2019 ; Quiroga and Souto 2022 ). We found that niche conservatism was evident between current and future RCPs for A. falcatus, P. latifolius and P. henkelii ( Table 3 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

2023

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Under the changing climate, the persistence of Afrotemperate taxa may be threatened as suitable habitat availability decreases. The unique disjunct ranges of podocarps in southern Africa raise questions about the persistence of these species under climate change. Here, we identified likely environmental drivers of these distributions, characterised the current and future (2070) environmental niches, and projected distributions of four podocarp species in South Africa. Species distribution models were conducted using species locality data for A. falcatus, P. latifolius, P. elongatus and P. henkelii and both historical climate data (1970 – 2000) and future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 2061 – 2080) to estimate the current and future distributions. We also used this opportunity to identify the most important climatic variables that likely govern each species’ distribution. Using niche overlap estimates, a similarity test, and indices of niche expansion, stability and unfilling, we explored how niches change under different climate scenarios. The distribution of the study species was governed by max temperature of the warmest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation of the wettest, driest, and warmest quarters. The current distribution of A. falcatus was predicted to expand to higher elevations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Podocarpus henkelii was predicted to lose most of its suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 and expand under RCP 8.5, however this was the opposite for P. elongatus and P. latifolius. Interestingly, P. elongatus, which had the smallest geographic distribution, showed the most vulnerability to climate change in comparison to the other podocarps. Mapping the distribution of podocarps and understanding the differences in their current and future climate niches provides insight into potential climate drivers of podocarp persistence and the potential for adaptation of these species. Overall, these results suggest that P. elongatus and P. henkelii may expand to novel environmental niches.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

2023

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“…In particular, if a suite of traits are repeatedly selected across the phylogeny of rare species, an evolutionary syndrome of rarity may exist and act upon species' range size, habitat specificity, and population sizes. Therefore, the traits that are related to whether a species is rare and how it is rare on the landscape, may also affect patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem function (Angert et al., 2011; Broenniman et al., 2005; Cron et al., 2009; Des Roches et al., 2018; Gorman et al., 2014; Quiroga & Souto, 2022; Ricklefs et al., 2008; Sfair et al., 2018). Overall, we know little about the evolutionary causes and consequences of rarity, such as: (1) whether there are specific performance traits associated with plant rarity that may determine if and how a plant species is rare; (2) if those traits are under selection or have evolved; (3) if those traits are related to the three primary axes of rarity; and (4) if there are potential ecosystem level consequences associated with being rare that are not currently being considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An evolutionary case for plant rarity: Eucalyptus as a model system

Nytko,

Senior,

Wooliver

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Species rarity is a common phenomenon across global ecosystems that is becoming increasingly more common under climate change. Although species rarity is often considered to be a stochastic response to environmental and ecological constraints, we examined the hypothesis that plant rarity is a consequence of natural selection acting on performance traits that affect a species range size, habitat specificity, and population aggregation; three primary descriptors of rarity. Using a common garden of 25 species of Tasmanian Eucalyptus, we find that the rarest species have 70% lower biomass than common species. Although rare species demonstrate lower biomass, rare species allocated proportionally more biomass aboveground than common species. There is also a negative phylogenetic autocorrelation underlying the biomass of rare and common species, indicating that traits associated with rarity have diverged within subgenera as a result of environmental factors to reach different associated optima. In support of our hypothesis, we found significant positive relationships between species biomass, range size and habitat specificity, but not population aggregation. These results demonstrate repeated convergent evolution of the trait‐based determinants of rarity across the phylogeny in Tasmanian eucalypts. Furthermore, the phylogenetically driven patterns in biomass and biomass allocation seen in rare species may be representative of a larger plant strategy, not yet considered, but offering a mechanism as to how rare species continue to persist despite inherent constraints of small, specialized ranges and populations. These results suggest that if rarity can evolve and is related to plant traits such as biomass, rather than a random outcome of environmental constraints, we may need to revise conservation efforts in these and other rare species to reconsider the abiotic and biotic factors that underlie the distributions of rare plant species.

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“…For instance, a rare species might be characterised by a small population that is widely dispersed geographically or by an abundant population restricted to a limited habitat area (Rabinowitz, 1986). This classification framework is still frequently used, for instance, for plants at regional (Quiroga & Souto, 2022) and national levels (Choe et al, 2019) and for deep-sea bivalves (McClain, 2021), serving as a base for further theoretical work (Maciel, 2021). Under nonexperimental conditions, the uneven distribution of individuals among species is a common pattern observed in biological communities (Magurran, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The implications of estimating rarity in Brazilian reptiles from GBIF data based on contributions from citizen science versus research institutions

Forti,

da Silva,

Ferreira

et al. 2024

Integrative Conservation

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Understanding the distribution of rare species is important for conservation prioritisation. Traditionally, museums and other research institutions have served as depositories for specimens and biodiversity information. However, estimating abundance from these sources is challenging due to spatiotemporally biased collection methods. For instance, large‐bodied reptiles that are found near research institutions or in popular, easily accessible sites tend to be overrepresented in collections compared to smaller species found in remote areas. Recently, a substantial number of observations have been amassed through citizen (or community) science initiatives, which are invaluable for monitoring purposes. Given the unstructured nature of this sampling, these datasets are often affected by biases, such as taxonomic, spatial and temporal preferences. Therefore, analysing data from these two sources can lead to different abundance estimates. This study compiled data on Brazilian reptile species from the Global Information Biodiversity Facility (GBIF). It employed a community‐ecology approach to analyse data from research institutions and citizen science initiatives, separately and collectively, to assess taxonomic and spatial species coverage and predict species rarity. Using a 1‐degree hexagonal grid, we analysed the spatial distribution of reptile communities and calculated rarity indices for 754 reptile species. Our findings reveal that 87 species were exclusively recorded in the citizen science subset, while 212 were recorded only by research institutions. The number of observations per species in the citizen science data followed a Gambin distribution, which aligns with the expected pattern of abundance in natural communities, unlike the data from research institutions. This suggests that citizen science data may be a more accurate source for estimating species abundance and rarity. The discrepancies in rarity classifications between the datasets were likely due to differences in sample size and potentially other sampling parameters. Nevertheless, combining data collected by both research institutions and citizen science initiatives can help to fill knowledge gaps in reptile species occurrence, thus enhancing the foundation for conservation efforts on a national scale.

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Ecological niche modeling, niche overlap, and good old Rabinowitz’s rarities applied to the conservation of gymnosperms in a global biodiversity hotspot

Cited by 7 publications

References 83 publications

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

An evolutionary case for plant rarity: Eucalyptus as a model system

The implications of estimating rarity in Brazilian reptiles from GBIF data based on contributions from citizen science versus research institutions

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