Ecological niche modeling as a tool for prediction of the potential geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis spores in Tanzania

Mwakapeje, Elibariki; Ndimuligo, Sood A.; Mosomtai, Gladys; Ayebare, Samuel; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Nonga, H. E.; Mdegela, Robinson H.; Skjerve, Eystein

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.11.367

Cited by 28 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(50 reference statements)

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“…It has advantages over other species distribution modelling as it requires species presenceonly data, and both categorical and continuous variables can be used (Dudik et al 2004;Phillips and Dudík 2008). Several studies have demonstrated MaxEnt's ability to accurately predict species distribution in a wide range of ecological and geographical regions (Thuiller et al 2005;Yi et al 2018;Mwakapeje et al 2019). Subsequently, conservation practitioners have been increasingly using habitat suitability models from MaxEnt to make management decisions (Loiselle et al 2003;Saatchi et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing climate patterns risk the spread of Varroa destructor infestation of African honey bees in Tanzania

Giliba

Mpinga²,

Ndimuligo

et al. 2020

Ecol Process

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Background Climate change creates opportune conditions that favour the spread of pests and diseases outside their known active range. Modelling climate change scenarios is oftentimes useful tool to assess the climate analogues to unveil the potential risk of spreading suitability conditions for pests and diseases and hence allows development of appropriate responses to address the impending challenge. In the current study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the distribution of Varroa destructor, a parasitic mite that attacks all life forms of honey bees and remains a significant threat to their survival and productivity of bee products in Tanzania and elsewhere. Methods The data about the presence of V. destructor were collected in eight regions of Tanzania selected in consideration of several factors including potentials for beekeeping activities, elevation (highlands vs. lowlands) and differences in climatic conditions. A total of 19 bioclimatic datasets covering the entire country were used for developing climate scenarios of mid-century 2055 and late-century 2085 for both rcp4.5 and rcp8.5. We thereafter modelled the current and future risk distribution of V. destructor using MaxEnt. Results The results indicated a model performance of AUC = 0.85, with mean diurnal range in temperature (Bio2, 43.9%), mean temperature (Bio1, 20.6%) and mean annual rainfall (Bio12, 11.7%) as the important variables. Future risk projections indicated mixed responses of the potential risk of spreads of V. destructor, exhibiting both decrease and increases in the mid-century 2055 and late-century 2085 on different sites. Overall, there is a general decline of highly suitable areas of V. destructor in mid- and late-century across all scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5). The moderately suitable areas indicated a mixed response in mid-century with decline (under rcp4.5) and increase (under rcp8.5) and consistent increase in late century. The marginally suitable areas show a decline in mid-century and increase in late-century. Our results suggest that the climate change will continue to significantly affect the distribution and risks spread of V. destructor in Tanzania. The suitability range of V. destructor will shift where highly suitable areas will be diminishing to the advantage of the honey bees’ populations, but increase of moderately suitable sites indicates an expansion to new areas. The late century projections show the increased risks due to surge in the moderate and marginal suitability which means expansion in the areas where V. destructor will operate. Conclusion The current and predicted areas of habitat suitability for V. destructor’s host provides information useful for beekeeping stakeholders in Tanzania to consider the impending risks and allow adequate interventions to address challenges facing honey bees and the beekeeping industry. We recommend further studies on understanding the severity of V. destructor in health and stability of the honey bees in Tanzania. This will provide a better picture on how the country will need to monitor and reduce the risks associated with the increase of V. destructor activities as triggered by climate change. The loss of honey bees’ colonies and its subsequent impact in bees’ products production and pollination effect have both ecological and economic implications that need to have prioritization by the stakeholders in the country to address the challenge of spreading V. destructor.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing climate patterns risk the spread of Varroa destructor infestation of African honey bees in Tanzania

Giliba

Mpinga²,

Ndimuligo

et al. 2020

Ecol Process

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“…The method is widely used for: (i) modelling the potential range of distribution of a species; and, (ii) modelling the potential area of distribution of the disease based on the assumption of its coincidence with the pathogen's geographical range. Examples of the latter approach are studies by Peterson et al and Rose and Wall on viral diseases [53,54]; Du et al on myasis [55]; Abdrakhmanov et al [56,57]; Mwakapej et al [58] on anthrax. A conceptual review of the application of the MaxEnt method in biogeography is given in [59].…”

Section: Geospatial Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area (Moscow region, Russia): a geographic investigation

Mironova

Shartova

Beljaev

et al. 2020

Malar J

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Background: Between 1999 and 2008 Russia experienced a flare-up of transmission of vivax malaria following its massive importation with more than 500 autochthonous cases in European Russia, the Moscow region being the most affected. The outbreak waned soon after a decrease in importation in mid-2000s and strengthening the control measures. Compared with other post-eradication epidemics in Europe this one was unprecedented by its extension and duration. Methods: The aim of this study is to identify geographical determinants of transmission. The degree of favourability of climate for vivax malaria was assessed by measuring the sum of effective temperatures and duration of season of effective infectivity using data from 22 weather stations. For geospatial analysis, the locations of each of 405 autochthonous cases detected in Moscow region have been ascertained. A MaxEnt method was used for modelling the territorial differentiation of Moscow region according to the suitability of infection re-emergence based on the statistically valid relationships between the distribution of autochthonous cases and environmental and climatic factors. Results: In 1999-2004, in the beginning of the outbreak, meteorological conditions were extremely favourable for malaria in 1999, 2001 and 2002, especially within the borders of the city of Moscow and its immediate surroundings. The greatest number of cases occurred at the northwestern periphery of the city and in the adjoining rural areas. A significant role was played by rural construction activities attracting migrant labour, vegetation density and landscape division. A cutoff altitude of 200 m was observed, though the factor of altitude did not play a significant role at lower altitudes. Most likely, the urban heat island additionally amplified malaria re-introduction. Conclusion: The malariogenic potential in relation to vivax malaria was high in Moscow region, albeit heterogeneous. It is in Moscow that the most favourable conditions exist for vivax malaria re-introduction in the case of a renewed importation. This recent event of large-scale re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area can serve as a case study for further research.

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“…All three types of anthrax are implicitly fatal in wildlife, livestock, and human beings, if not treated promptly (7). Due to B. anthracis' virulence, tenacious anthrax cases and repetitive outbreaks, concerns have been raised across continents in recent years, e.g., sub-Saharan Africa (8), Asia (9), Europe (10), Australia (11), and the United States of America (12). Also due to its potential use for bioterrorism, anthrax is considered as a global public health threat (13).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The behavior of avian and mammalian scavengers (18), rending the carcass apart, frees a multitude of B. anthracis bacteria. Subsequently, scavengers may disperse the bacteria over a wide range through ingestion and bathing resulting in contamination of water bodies (8). Human beings, livestock, and wildlife will invariably encounter each other or share habitats which would cause a spill back or spillover of the infection.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies found that soil type (cambisol), high pH, high calcium cation concentrations and high soil organic matter were associated with spore germination and maintaining spore viability (8,(23)(24)(25) as well as spore adhesion to soil particles (26). Many authors have described the soil types as the key factor in B. anthracis spore germination and maintenance of dormancy (11,24,27,28).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Bacillus Anthracis Spores Survival in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

Arotolu¹,

Wang²,

Lv³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Introduction: Bacillus anthracis spores may remain viable for many years in soil. Previous studies have identified East Qinghai and neighbouring Gansu in northwest China as a potential source of anthrax infection. This study was carried out to identify conditions and areas in the Qinghai lake basin that are environmentally suitable for Bacillus anthracis spore survival. Materials and Methods: Anthrax occurrence data from 2005 – 2016 and environmental variables were spatially modeled by a maximum entropy algorithm to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of the spore. A Principal Component and Variance Inflation Analysis were adopted to limit the number of environmental variables and minimize multicollinearity. Results: The three variables that contributed most to the suitability model for B. anthracis spores are a relatively high annual mean temperature (53%), soil type (35%), and a high human population density (12%). The most significant soil types were cambisols and kastanozems. The resulting distribution map identifies the permanently inhabited rim of the Qinghai Lake as highly suitable for the survival and persistence of the spores. Conclusion: The highly suitable areas for spores could be considered as a risk zone for Anthrax infection by spores of the livestock and the human population. Our environmental suitability map and the identified variables provides the nature reserve managers and animal health authorities readily available information to devise a surveillance strategy in B. anthracis suitable regions to abate future epidemics.

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Ecological niche modeling as a tool for prediction of the potential geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis spores in Tanzania

Cited by 28 publications

References 44 publications

Changing climate patterns risk the spread of Varroa destructor infestation of African honey bees in Tanzania

Changing climate patterns risk the spread of Varroa destructor infestation of African honey bees in Tanzania

Re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area (Moscow region, Russia): a geographic investigation

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Bacillus Anthracis Spores Survival in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

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