Ecological Niche Model for Predicting Distribution of Disease-Vector Mosquitoes in Yucatán State, México

Abstract

The majority of the Yucatán State, México, presents subtropical climate that is suitable for many species of mosquitoes that are known to be vectors of diseases, including those from the genera Aedes and Culex. The objective of this study is to identify the geographic distribution of five species from these two genera and estimate the human population at risk of coming in contact with them. We compiled distributional data for Aedes aegypti (L.), Aedes (Howardina) cozumelensis (Diaz Najera), Culex coronator Dyar and Knab, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Culex thriambus Dyar from several entomological studies in Yucatán between March 2010 and September 2014. Based on these data, we constructed ecological niche models to predict the spatial distribution of each species using the MaxEnt algorithm. Our models identified areas with suitable environments for Ae. aegypti in most of Yucatán. A similar percentage of urban (97.1%) and rural (96.5%) populations were contained in areas of highest suitability for Ae. aegypti, and no spatial pattern was found (Moran's I = 0.33, P = 0.38); however, we found an association of abundance of immature forms of this species with annual mean temperature (r = 0.19, P ≤ 0.001) and annual precipitation (r = 0.21, P ≤ 0.001). Aedes cozumelensis is also distributed in most areas of the Yucatán State; Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. coronator, and Cx. thriambus are restricted to the northwest. The information generated in this study can inform decision-making to address control measures in priority areas with presence of these vectors.

Increased Adult Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance in a Dengue Transmission Hotspot, Compared to a Coldspot, within Kaohsiung City, Taiwan

“…However, rainfall impacts are highly nonlinear [ 39 ], given that extreme rainfall might wash-out larvae from aquatic habitats depending on the mosquito species [ 41 ]. In addition, droughts might trigger water accumulation in artificial containers by humans, which can increase the recruitment of adult mosquito vectors [ 42 , 43 , 44 ].…”

An Ecological Framework for Modeling the Geography of Disease Transmission

“…However, the black-box oversimplification may be perilous as it neglects ecological complexity (e.g., the identity of key host species for transmission). Alternatively, component-based approaches consider the individual ecologies of all species involved in disease transmission (e.g., parasites, hosts) [16,17,32]. This approach allows the identification of host species and prioritization of areas for disease surveillance and control.…”

“…Data Quality and Availability A major challenge of the application of ENM to disease systems is the lack of reliable, highquality disease occurrence repositories. This has led to the widespread use of black-box modeling for disease outbreaks [28][29][30] and component-based modeling of hosts only [17,32]. The use of outbreak data to model disease distributions raises methodological issues.…”

“…A common assumption of disease ENM is that predicted host distributions and disease presence are equivalent [17,32]. This should be considered with caution since susceptible hosts may occur where parasites are absent, and even when infection occurs, disease may be absent [7,48].…”

Diversity and potential distribution of culicids of medical importance of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

“…A database was constructed from collections reported in Baak-Baak and colleagues, 15,16 this study, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, www. gbif.org/).…”