Ecological, angler and spatial heterogeneity drive social and ecological outcomes in an integrated landscape model of freshwater recreational fisheries

Abstract

26Freshwater recreational fisheries constitute complex adaptive social-ecological systems (SES) 27 where mobile anglers link spatially structured ecosystems. We present a general 28 social-ecological model of a spatial recreational fishery for northern pike (Esox lucius) that 29 included an empirically measured mechanistic utility model driving angler behaviors. We 30 studied emergent properties at the macro-scale (e.g., region) as a result of local-scale 31 fish-angler interactions, while systematically examining key heterogeneities (at the angler and 32 ecosystem level) and sources of uncertainty. We offer three key insights. First, the angler 33 population size and the resulting latent reginal angling effort exerts a much greater impact on 34 the overall regional-level overfishing outcome than any residential pattern (urban or rural), 35 while the residential patterns strongly affects the location of local overfishing pockets. Second, 36 simplifying a heterogeneous angler population to a homogenous one representing the 37 preference and behaviours of an average angler risks severely underestimating 38 landscape-level effort and regional overfishing. Third, we did not find that ecologically more 39 productive lakes were more systematically overexploited than lower-productive lakes. We 40 conclude that understanding regional-level outcomes depends on considering four key 41 ingredients: regional angler population size, the angler population composition, the specific 42 residential pattern in place and spatial ecological variation. Simplification of any of these may 43 obscure important dynamics and render the system prone to collapse. 44 4

Synchrony — An emergent property of recreational fisheries

“…Building on the work of Matsumura et al. (), we predict that the level of regional synchrony will depend on both the degree and location of angler and ecological heterogeneity on the landscape (Figure ). High angler heterogeneity paired with high waterbody diversity will likely result in low levels of angler synchrony.…”

“…Fish and Wildlife Service, ). Including other regions with more dynamic angler populations should affect regional‐level patterns, such as angler synchrony (Matsumura et al., ). Our conceptual framework would predict that angler synchrony at larger spatial scales that includes greater waterbody diversity and angler heterogeneity would be lower than the moderate amount of synchrony we observed (Figure ).…”

“…Local‐level utility‐based choice models used in conjunction with a complex‐adaptive‐systems framework offer insight as to how angler behaviour may scale up to the regional level (Arlinghaus et al., ; Hunt, Arlinghaus, Lester, & Kushneriuk, ; Matsumura, Beardmore, Haider, Dieckmann, & Arlinghaus, ). Total utility describes the social welfare or benefits that a recreational fishery offers to society (Dorow, Beardmore, Haider, & Arlinghaus, ; Malvestuto & Hudgins, ).…”

“…Angler specialization, or the range in interest and skill level among anglers, should also be considered in this context (Bryan, ; Ditton, Loomis, & Choi, ). Therefore, the degree of angler heterogeneity and waterbody diversity throughout a landscape will likely influence angler behaviour at a larger spatial scale (Arlinghaus et al., ; Hunt et al., ; Matsumura et al., ).…”

“…Based on a latent class and utility model, Matsumura et al. () predicted that emergent properties within recreational fisheries should occur as a function of local‐level processes. Specifically, local‐level interactions among residential patterns (i.e.…”