Ecogeography and Climate Change in Forage Grasses from Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Mexico

Abstract

Arid and semi-arid areas are highly productive ecosystems that have a great diversity of species, among which grasses stand out. These species have ecological, environmental, and economic importance. The objective was to identify the ecological descriptors of 15 native species of grasses and diversity patterns through multivariate analysis techniques (principal component analysis, PCA, and cluster analysis, CA), in addition to identifying potential distribution areas (current and future) and regions of high and low diversity from 3841 accessions and 21 climatic variables. Among the main results, the extreme values, coefficient of variation, and median for each species could be determined. PCA determined that, with 10 variables, it was possible to explain 54.36% of the variation between the analyzed species. CA resulted in the formation of four statistically significant groups, with specific climatic characteristics. Regarding potential distribution areas and climate change, a reduction in distribution is expected (2050) on most of the current surface, with a possible opportunity zone in the north of the country. Finally, two hotspots (high diversity areas) and four coldspots (low diversity areas) were identified among the analyzed species. These results can be used to create strategies for sustainable use and the conservation of these resources.