Echoes: What Happens when Football Is Played behind Closed Doors?

Abstract

We use a series of natural experiments in association football (soccer) to test whether the lack of social pressure from spectators affected behaviour and outcomes. We observe that the normal advantage to the home team from playing in their own stadium was on average eroded when they played behind closed doors, with no supporters. Among the various effects from no fans being present, visiting players were cautioned significantly less often by referees. This suggests that closed doors matches are different because referees favour the home team less in their decision making. We discuss these findings in the light of the Covid-19 pandemic that has led to the remainder of the 2019/20 European football season playing out in empty stadiums.

Animal Spirits in the Beautiful Game. Testing social pressure in professional football during the COVID-19 lockdown

“…Given the relative magnitude of these effects and the greater impact that yellow card bookings have on games, this evidence suggests that the lockdowns have a more significant effect in the way referees treat away teams than home teams. This observation is consistent with Reade et al (2020), who find that the number of yellow cards to home teams are unaffected by lockdowns while the number decreases significantly for away teams.…”

“…Both of these mechanisms could potentially lead to an overestimation of the effect of social pressure exerted by the audience. 3 My findings are in line with Reade et al (2020), in that home crowds have a particularly strong effect on the way referees treat away teams. However, while their study only finds a significant reduction in the number of referee bookings made against away teams, my results show a large and significant effect of the lockdowns on the difference in the number of referee calls made against the home team and the away team, which constitutes a stronger indicator of referee bias.…”

“…Overall, these studies find mixed evidence of an effect of home crowds on team performance. While Reade et al (2020) find partial evidence of a reduction in referee bias, stadium closures in these cases were mostly the result of one-off punishments to home teams for corruption or bad behavior of the audience. One concern is that referees may have been negatively predisposed towards home teams playing in these circumstances, given their recent bad behavior.…”

“…However, these events are rare. Moore & Brylinsky (1993) analyzed 11 college basketball games played behind closed doors due to a measles epidemic, while Pettersson-Lidbom & Priks (2010) and later Reade et al (2020) analyzed 21 and 160 closed-door matches in professional football, respectively. Overall, these studies find mixed evidence of an effect of home crowds on team performance.…”

“…Reade et al (2020) also includes Italian matches from early 2020 played behind closed doors due to COVID-19 just before the global lockdowns. However, they pool these observations with earlier data on stadium closures to estimate the effect of home crowds on referee bias.…”