Eatwell Guide: modelling the dietary and cost implications of incorporating new sugar and fibre guidelines

Abstract

ObjectivesTo model food group consumption and price of diet associated with achieving UK dietary recommendations while deviating as little as possible from the current UK diet, in order to support the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (now called the Eatwell Guide).DesignOptimisation modelling, minimising an objective function of the difference between population mean modelled and current consumption of 125 food groups, and constraints of nutrient and food-based recommendations.SettingThe UK.PopulationAdults aged 19 years and above from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008–2011.Main outcome measuresProportion of diet consisting of major foods groups and price of the optimised diet.ResultsThe optimised diet has an increase in consumption of ‘potatoes, bread, rice, pasta and other starchy carbohydrates’ (+69%) and ‘fruit and vegetables’ (+54%) and reductions in consumption of ‘beans, pulses, fish, eggs, meat and other proteins’ (−24%), ‘dairy and alternatives’ (−21%) and ‘foods high in fat and sugar’ (−53%). Results within food groups show considerable variety (eg, +90% for beans and pulses, −78% for red meat). The modelled diet would cost £5.99 (£5.93 to £6.05) per adult per day, very similar to the cost of the current diet: £6.02 (£5.96 to £6.08). The optimised diet would result in increased consumption of n-3 fatty acids and most micronutrients (including iron and folate), but decreased consumption of zinc and small decreases in consumption of calcium and riboflavin.ConclusionsTo achieve the UK dietary recommendations would require large changes in the average diet of UK adults, including in food groups where current average consumption is well within the recommended range (eg, processed meat) or where there are no current recommendations (eg, dairy). These large changes in the diet will not lead to significant changes in the price of the diet.

What can the food and drink industry do to help achieve the 5% free sugars goal?

“…However, the proportions in the guide represent a large change from current dietary patterns, such as greater than 50% reduction in sugary foods, meat and poultry, and more than 50% increase in starchy frequency of treats and smaller portions foods and fruit and vegetables (31).…”

Eatwell Guide – the bare facts

“…However, it is unclear whether the increase in fish depicted in the Eatwell Guide (from about 25 g to 61 g in the optimisation modelling) is compatible with sustainable management of marine and aquatic environments (Scarborough et al . ).…”

“…But according to Scarborough et al . (), this change in diet will require increased consumption of plant foods, particularly fruit and vegetables, fibre‐containing starchy carbohydrates, fish and legumes, accompanied by reductions in dairy products such as cheese, red, processed and white meats and foods high in fat and sugars. Scarborough et al .…”

“…Scarborough et al . () suggest that such a diet would not be more costly to purchase (£6.02 in 2016 compared to £5.99, per adult per day), although Cobiac et al . () note the impact of such a dietary shift on the farming community engaged in producing meat and dairy products.…”

“…In December 2016, papers were published which provide the scientific rationale for the new proportions of the UK government's new Eatwell Guide (Scarborough et al . ) and explored the effect the Guide might have on health (Cobiac et al . ).…”