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Michael J. Mazarr is a Fellow in International Security Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC.He holds an MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University and is the author of SEMPER FIDEL: AMERICA AND CUBA, 1776 (Nautical and Aviation, 1988 and several articles on Cuba and Cuban-American relations. He is currently at work on a book about the expeditions to Cuba LAST JANUARY MARKED the 30th anniversary of the Cuban revolution, and it could be that, within a decade, that small islandnation will be transformed once again. Since 1959, Castro's Cuba has remained a politically repressive, economically stagnant, militarily adventuristic state. The legitimacy of the Cuban regime depends, in many ways, on the persona of Fidel Castro; when he dies, the government will face by far its severest test to date and, most probably, at a time when a potentially deadly economic and systemic crisis continues to threaten the Cuban polity. Revolutionary or reformist elements will almost certainly emerge to demand change.What would happen next is the subject of this essay. It will address a two-part question: what are the chances for a revolution in post-Castro Cuba? and if one occurred: what form would it take?The fate...