Earthquakes and Aftershocks: Race, Direct Democracy, and Partisan Change

Abstract

Although dramatic partisan change among the electorate is infrequent, the issue agendas of parties may produce large shifts. A major cause of such change is the politics of race. In a political environment charged with racially oriented issues, racial groups often align themselves with different parties (as witnessed most recently in the American South). Yet, if racial appeals violate norms of equality, these appeals may rebound on the party using them. Consequently, members of the (white) racial majority and racially targeted minority may both move away from the offending party. Using data from the California Field Poll, we find that racially charged ballot propositions sponsored by the Republican party during the 1990s in California reversed the trend among Latinos and Anglos toward identifying as Republican, ceteris paribus, by shifting party attachments toward the Democratic party. Our results raise serious questions about the long-term efficacy of racially divisive strategies for electoral gain.

The Local Political Context of Latino Partisanship

“…Therefore their partisan ties might be more cemented so that by adulthood the local political environment has much less of an influence. For newer generations, partisan attachments may not be as firmly cemented because their socialization to partisan politics is different (Alvarez and Bedolla 2003;Bowler, Nicholson, and Segura 2006). Furthermore, local partisan environments could have a greater influence on immigrants given that "community-level political activities are open to unauthorized immigrants and legal immigrants not yet eligible for naturalization (DeSipio 2011(DeSipio , 1193."…”

“…Prior studies have shown how a single political environment that changes over time can influence Latino partisanship (Bowler, Nicholson, and Segura 2006). Yet few studies have examined how differences in political environments across regions might influence Latino partisanship.…”

“…Furthermore, states, regions, and localities could experience these events differently (Kosmin and Keysar 1995), and thus Latinos might experience economic and political events very differently depending on where they live. This regional difference in political context can be seen in CA where a variety of antiimmigrant ballot initiatives and campaigns created a politically charged environment that had a measurable effect on Latino partisanship (Bowler, Nicholson and Segura 2006;Dyck, Johnson and Wasson 2012). Prior scholarship has not highlighted the role of local contexts on Latino partisanship since it is often argued that "an important feature of the Latino experience is the increasingly segregated concentration of (Liaw and Frey 2007).…”

Immigration Politics and Electoral Consequences: Anticipating the Dynamics of Latino Vote in the 2014 Election

“…Moreover, between 1980 and 1994, the GOP was beginning to drag Latinos to the right as well. Field Poll data make it clear that Latinos in the state were less Democratic every year between 1980 and 1994 (Bowler et al 2006). Ronald Reagan did well among Latinos in 1984 and the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 was passed by a GOP Senate and signed by a GOP president.…”

The Paradox of Prop. 13: The Informed Public's Misunderstanding of California's Third Rail

“…Although ballot initiatives with strong racial and ethnic dimensions have garnered a great deal of attention from scholars and political observers in recent years (Bowler, Nicholson, and Segura 2006;Nicholson 2005, chp.6;Tolbert and Hero 1996;Tolbert and Grummel 2003), perhaps no initiative figures more prominently in California political consciousness than Prop. 13.…”