Earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the width of the seismogenic zone

Herrendörfer, Robert; Dinther, Ylona van; Gerya, Taras; Dalguer, L. A.

doi:10.1038/ngeo2427

Cited by 113 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Partial ruptures have been attributed to geometrical or frictional fault heterogeneity (Dal Zilio et al, ; Li et al, ; Moreno et al, ; Qiu et al, ). Other studies invoke, as I do here, gradients in the stress field due to nonuniform loading (Herrendorfer et al, ; Michel et al, ), implying that partial ruptures may be rather common for sufficiently large VW regions. It is worth noting that computational limitations often require to impose unrealistically large values for some of the relevant length scales, for example by setting d c several orders of magnitude larger than experimental values.…”

Section: Implications For Seismic Hazardsupporting

confidence: 62%

“…Early earthquake cycle simulations of planar faults in an elastic medium produced sequences of periodic, system-size events (Rice, 1993;Tse & Rice, 1986). Subsequent studies found that subsystem-size events (partial ruptures) occur for a small enough slip-weakening distance (Lapusta, 2003;Lapusta et al, 2000) or equivalently for a sufficiently large fault dimension (Cattania & Segall, 2019;Erickson et al, 2011;Herrendorfer et al, 2015;Werner & Rubin, 2013;Wu & Chen, 2014). While simple limit cycles with few or no partial ruptures are typically produced by correctly discretized models, under resolved simulations exhibit richer slip complexity, including a power law distribution of rupture dimensions (Ben-Zion & Rice, 1995;Lapusta et al, 2000;Rice, 1993).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Complex Earthquake Sequences On Simple Faults

Cattania

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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While power law distributions in seismic moment and interevent times are ubiquitous in regional earthquake catalogs, the statistics of individual faults remains controversial. Continuum fault models without heterogeneity typically produce characteristic earthquakes or a narrow range of sizes, leading to the view that regional statistics originate from interaction of multiple faults. I present theoretical arguments and numerical simulations demonstrating that seismicity on homogeneous planar faults can span several orders of magnitude in rupture dimensions and interevent times, if the fault dimension W is sufficiently large compared to a characteristic length Lcrit, related to the nucleation dimension. Large faults are increasingly less characteristic, with the fraction of system‐size ruptures proportional to (Lcrit/W)1/2. Earthquake statistics for large W/Lcrit is remarkably close to nature, exhibiting Omori decay and power law distributed rupture lengths. Simple crack models are consistent with a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution with b=3/4 and provide a physical basis for these distributions on individual faults.

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Section: Implications For Seismic Hazardsupporting

confidence: 62%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complex Earthquake Sequences On Simple Faults

Cattania

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…14). A detailed study based on numerical modelling highlights the occurrence of both cracks and pulses and that the largest stress drops are associated with cracks (Herrendorfer et al, 2015).…”

Section: Rupture Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analogue earthquakes and seismic cycles: experimental modelling across timescales

2017

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Abstract. Earth deformation is a multi-scale process ranging from seconds (seismic deformation) to millions of years (tectonic deformation). Bridging short-and long-term deformation and developing seismotectonic models has been a challenge in experimental tectonics for more than a century. Since the formulation of Reid's elastic rebound theory 100 years ago, laboratory mechanical models combining frictional and elastic elements have been used to study the dynamics of earthquakes. In the last decade, with the advent of high-resolution monitoring techniques and new rock analogue materials, laboratory earthquake experiments have evolved from simple spring-slider models to scaled analogue models. This evolution was accomplished by advances in seismology and geodesy along with relatively frequent occurrences of large earthquakes in the past decade. This coincidence has significantly increased the quality and quantity of relevant observations in nature and triggered a new understanding of earthquake dynamics. We review here the developments in analogue earthquake modelling with a focus on those seismotectonic scale models that are directly comparable to observational data on short to long timescales. We lay out the basics of analogue modelling, namely scaling, materials and monitoring, as applied in seismotectonic modelling. An overview of applications highlights the contributions of analogue earthquake models in bridging timescales of observations including earthquake statistics, rupture dynamics, ground motion, and seismic-cycle deformation up to seismotectonic evolution.

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“…These shallow earthquakes are mainly linked to the subduction plate interface and have more potential to cause seismic hazard. In particular, the deep earthquakes ([70 km) have different generation mechanisms from these shallow events (Frohlich 2006;Houston 2007). Therefore, it is obviously unreasonable to lump all the events together to predict earthquake energy release for seismic hazard assessment.…”

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confidence: 99%

Comment on the paper by Kavitha and Raghukanth, “Regional level forecasting of seismic energy release”

2015

Acta Geod Geophys

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Kavitha and Raghukanth (Acta Geod Geophys 1-33, 2015) proposed an algorithm to forecast the earthquake energy release for the global seismogenic zones. They concluded that ''the developed model is efficient in forecasting the annual earthquake energy release of most of the seismogenic zone''. However, for several representative case studies their predictions not only are significantly smaller than the observations but also have unreasonable uncertainty. This commentary discusses some of the problems associated with the earthquake data selection for the input of modeling, which may improve the accuracy of the earthquake energy prediction.Keywords Earthquake forecasting Á Seismic hazard assessment Á Seismogenic zone Kavitha and Raghukanth (2015) proposed a time-independent algorithm to forecast the earthquake energy release for the global seismogenic zones on the basis of the global seismicity catalog and the plate boundary model. Such an algorithm seems be useful to determine the most likely moment magnitude and assess the seismic hazard for a specific region. However, for several temporal or spatial cases in their modeling results, the predicted moment energy release is significantly inconsistent with the data. Taking the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake as an example, the expected magnitude of the Okhotsk-Pacific region is Mw8.1, with a standard deviation of Mw9.1. The predicted moment magnitude is significant smaller than the observation, particularly the estimated uncertainty is unreasonably large. The authors ascribed the low accuracy of the prediction to the complexities This comment refers to the article available at

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Earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the width of the seismogenic zone

Cited by 113 publications

References 29 publications

Complex Earthquake Sequences On Simple Faults

Complex Earthquake Sequences On Simple Faults

Analogue earthquakes and seismic cycles: experimental modelling across timescales

Comment on the paper by Kavitha and Raghukanth, “Regional level forecasting of seismic energy release”

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