Earthquake Scenario Ground Motions for the Urban Area of Evansville, Indiana

Haase, Jennifer S.; Nowack, Robert L.

doi:10.1785/gssrl.82.2.177

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…V S30 uncertainty is not quantified or accounted for in the current version of ShakeMap, but it remains an area of active research (Wald et al, 2022). Regional studies of ground motions in the Wabash Valley indicate that site-specific amplification values can increase PGA by 25%, 0.2 s by 50%, and 1.0 s spectral acceleration by 30% on average (Haase et al, 2011; Haase and Nowack, 2011). While this study cannot address the uncertainties associated with the GMPEs or site-specific adjustments, we do model all ruptures as finite-fault sources to help reduce uncertainties due to prescribed source parameters.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Atkinson and Beresnev, 2002; Central United States Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), 2003; Cramer et al, 2017; Mid-America Earthquake Center, 2009), and there are more recent deterministic scenario assessments with a focus on the Wabash Valley seismic zone (e.g. Haase and Nowack, 2011; Remo and Pinter, 2012). However, many of these studies focus on large-magnitude regional events, such as a repeat occurrence of the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Use of scenario earthquakes for seismic hazard assessment in low-seismicity, stable continental regions: A case study from Indiana, USA

2022

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While large earthquakes have been documented in stable continental regions, such as the central United States, they occur too infrequently to provide reliable observations of earthquake-related impacts. Using the state of Indiana as a case study, we investigate the impacts of five deterministic scenarios—three occurring outside the borders of the state and two within the state. They include a M7.3 Wabash Valley event in southern Illinois, a M7.6 New Madrid event in southeastern Missouri, a M6.2 event in west central Ohio, a M6.2 event near Evansville, Indiana, and a M5.8 Indianapolis event. The locations and magnitudes are based on known fault locations and credible interpretations of the earthquake history in the region. We use a combination of the US Geological Survey’s ShakeMap and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Hazus software packages to assess earthquake-triggered ground shaking and its effects on the built environment. We also use the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Ground Failure estimation tool to examine the spatial distribution of anticipated earthquake-induced landslides and liquefaction. The five main deterministic scenario models indicate that moderate-sized urban earthquakes may represent a greater threat to a state like Indiana than a large-magnitude event from the New Madrid seismic zone. To better understand the influence of earthquake source parameters on impacts, we conducted a sensitivity analysis for earthquakes near Indianapolis and Evansville, where we reviewed losses due to differences in magnitude, depth, strike, and dip. Based on the model projections, magnitude and depth have first-order and relatively predictable influence on losses. The orientation and dip of the causative fault in relation to populated areas can alter economic losses for an event of the same magnitude by 13%–32%. Deterministic scenario analyses, such as those presented here, can potentially be of widespread utility for understanding earthquake impacts in the central United States and other low-seismicity, stable continental regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%