Earthquake rupture dependence on hypocentral location along the Nicoya Peninsula subduction megathrust

Yang, Hongfeng; Yao, Suli; He, Bing; Newman, A. V.

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2019.05.030

Cited by 41 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Therefore, the first assumption appears to be valid in the Nicoya Peninsula. Although the aforementioned processes may lead to uncertainties of our estimated slip deficit, it would not significantly change the moment magnitude and final slip distribution of rupture scenarios, by considering up to 15% perturbation in the estimated slip deficit (Yang et al, ). As such, we obtain the slip deficit from the long‐term slip rate (~82 mm/year) and the interseismic locking distributions.…”

Section: Methods and Model Parametermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, numerical simulations based on interseismic locking models in the Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica show that different nucleation locations may lead to completely different rupture scenarios (Yang et al, ). Due to the rupture directivity effect, the ground displacement in the offshore region of a downdip nucleating rupture is nearly twice as much as that from an updip nucleating rupture, despite the identical initial loading conditions and ultimate moment magnitudes of the two scenarios (Yang et al, ). Such enlarged ground displacement on the seafloor may increase the tsunamigenic potential.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We also conduct a series of sensitivity tests in deriving the rupture scenarios, including material properties and rupture nucleation from the hypocenter of the 2012 Nicoya earthquake. In comparison, rupture scenarios in the recent work of Yang et al () were nucleated from a number of prescribed locations in the locked region. Next we validate our preferred rupture scenarios with kinematic source models and ground velocities of the Nicoya earthquake, which was not available in Yang et al ().…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the case of the 2007 Mw 8.0 Pisco earthquake, two major rupture patches were observed, with the larger one coinciding with a zone of intermediate locking (Perfettini et al, ). Furthermore, numerical simulations based on interseismic locking models in the Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica show that different nucleation locations may lead to completely different rupture scenarios (Yang et al, ). Due to the rupture directivity effect, the ground displacement in the offshore region of a downdip nucleating rupture is nearly twice as much as that from an updip nucleating rupture, despite the identical initial loading conditions and ultimate moment magnitudes of the two scenarios (Yang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In comparison, rupture scenarios in the recent work of Yang et al () were nucleated from a number of prescribed locations in the locked region. Next we validate our preferred rupture scenarios with kinematic source models and ground velocities of the Nicoya earthquake, which was not available in Yang et al (). We also discuss potential factors that could affect rupture propagation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Deriving Rupture Scenarios From Interseismic Locking Distributions Along the Subduction Megathrust

Yang

Yao

et al. 2019

JGR Solid Earth

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Given recent advances in geodetic data, interseismic locking models along the megathrust now become useful to qualitatively evaluate future earthquake potential. However, an individual earthquake's true rupture potential is challenging, as it depends on more than just a static image of prior locking. Here, we test the determinism of interseismic locking models using spontaneous rupture simulations and the well-resolved processes associated with the 2012 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.6 Nicoya earthquake. To do so, we estimate initial megathrust stress from locking by assuming that the entire slip deficit will be released in the next megathrust earthquake. Then we initiate spontaneous ruptures at the hypocenter of the 2012 Nicoya earthquake. We find scenarios that approximate the same coseismic slip distribution and final earthquake moment magnitude as obtained from seismic and geodetic observations, demonstrating that deriving potential rupture scenarios from interseismic locking is feasible. We also find that spontaneous rupture scenarios from different locking models differ in moment rate duration and thus ground motion prediction, although the final slip distribution and moment magnitude were similar. The results highlight that quantifying rupture scenarios and ground motions from reliable locking models by dynamic rupture simulations can be an effective tool for seismic hazard assessment in subduction zones. Key Points:• We conduct numerical simulations of rupture scenarios based on interseismic locking models • Our simulated earthquake scenario is well consistent with kinematic models of the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya earthquake • Details of rupture process and synthetic waveforms depend on the choice of the input locking model Supporting Information:• Supporting Information S1• Movie S1Note that the dynamic cohesive zone size is smaller than the static one (Day et al., 2005). Therefore, we tested mesh grid sizes of 400, 300, 250, and 200 m on the fault interface during dynamic rupture simulations. The results show that the final slip patterns are stable for 300, 250, and 200 m, while the slip amplitudes and moment magnitudes slightly differ ( Figure S2). Based on the grid size test, we select 250 m as the

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Section: Methods and Model Parametermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations