Earthquake prediction based on the analysis of water level fluctuations in the control well

Abstract

This study examines the methodology and results of earthquake forecasting based on the assumption that the earthquake preparation process can be linked to the development of rupture mechanisms. The analysis focuses on water fluctuations in a control monitoring well, which provides valuable information about the earthquake’s preparation period well in advance. Studies on the territory of the Kryvyi Rih iron ore basin (Kryvbas) confirmed that the underground waters in a deep well (815 m deep) depend on the processes of the current lithosphere deformations evidenced by the changing elastic-deformation state of the crust in tectonic areas. The Kryvyi Rih-Kremenchuk crust-mantle fault produces a system of different-scale faults in the crystalline basement which determine the hydrodynamics of the Kryvbas underground filtration. The earthquake preparation process exhibits clear indicators of the rupture process, characterized by a periodic component of water fluctuations superimposed on the main level-changing process during the preparatory phase. The frequency of the periodic component increases as the date of the earthquake approaches. With this approach, an earthquake with a magnitude of 4.1 inKryvbas was successfully predicted one and a half year before the event, based on monitoring water level fluctuations for 120 days between February and June 2016. The efficacy of forecasting local earthquakes was evaluated using the retro-forecast of earthquakes in Kryvbas on July 29, 2017. The methodology was validated through testing, confirming the initial assumptions. This technique was tested to predict the exacerbation of the seismic situation in the iron ore mining area caused by powerful blasting activities.