Earthquake Prediction and Long‐Term Hazard Assessment

Agnew, Duncan Carr; Ellsworth, William L.

doi:10.1002/rog.1991.29.s2.877

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Prediction Research 1962-19971

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Cited by 10 publications

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“…We recognize today that the scientific problems are not simple.' Reviews (Suzuki 1982;Turcotte 1991) and US national reports (Healy & Pakiser 1971;Healy 1975;Kisslinger & Wyss 1975;Ward 1979;Wyss 1983;Bakun 1987;Agnew & Ellsworth 1991;Aki 1995) provide useful overviews.…”

Section: Prediction Research 1962-1997mentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake prediction: a critical review

Geller

1997

Geophysical Journal International

440

226

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SUMMARY Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious successes. Claims of breakthroughs have failed to withstand scrutiny. Extensive searches have failed to find reliable precursors. Theoretical work suggests that faulting is a non‐linear process which is highly sensitive to unmeasurably fine details of the state of the Earth in a large volume, not just in the immediate vicinity of the hypocentre. Any small earthquake thus has some probability of cascading into a large event. Reliable issuing of alarms of imminent large earthquakes appears to be effectively impossible.

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