Earthquake prediction

Ward, Peter L.

doi:10.1029/rg017i002p00343

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 156 publications

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“…For example, it seems unlikely that animals would sense or would respond to reported changes in ground tilt [Mortensen and Johnston, 1976] even if they were as large as 10 -5 rad. Similarly, animals probably could not detect a change in gravity of 15/zGal, that is, about 10 -8 of the earth's field (as measured for the March 27, 1964, Alaskan earthquake [Brown et al, 1977] or changes in the compressional and shear velocities that have been reported [e.g., Ward, 1979]).…”

Section: Other Precursory Phenomenamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of geophysical phenomena that have been observed prior to earthquakes might also stimulate unusual animal behavior, including sound with an intensity and frequency outside the range of human perception [Armstrong, 1969;Hill et al, 1976], variations in local magnetic or electric fields [Bufe and Nanewicz, 1976;Johnson, 1978], ground vibrations or foreshocks [Jones and Molnar, 1979], changes in groundwater level [Rikitake, 1976;Raleigh et al, 1977], electromagnetic waves [Derr, 1973], and the release of gases usually trapped beneath the surface [King, 1978]. Animals probably do not sense some types of reported geophysical precursors, including ground tilt [Mortensen and Johnston, 1976], variations in P and $ velocities [Ward, 1979], and gravity anomalies [Brown et al, 1977].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unusual animal behavior before earthquakes: A review of possible sensory mechanisms

Buskirk¹,

Frohlich²,

Latham³

1981

Reviews of Geophysics

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To determine whether reports of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes are plausible, we have compared these reports with recent laboratory studies of animal sensory thresholds. Our major conclusion is that some animals are much more capable than humans of perceiving certain kinds of geophysical stimuli which may precede earthquakes. These geophysical stimuli are seismic or acoustic waves at low frequency (below 50 Hz), electric field changes, and olfactory stimuli. For example, recent studies suggest that some birds and fish are more sensitive than humans to sounds with frequencies below 40 Hz, and many animals are exceptionally good at perceiving low‐frequency vibrations through their skin. Certain fish are sensitive to electric field changes as small as 10−5 V/m, and some laboratory mammals also respond to significantly weaker fields than humans. For these electric and acoustic stimuli the reported levels of geophysical precursors are within the reported perceptible range of some animals which show unusual behavior prior to earthquakes. In addition, stimuli caused by the release of gases from small cracks may well be perceived by some animals before earthquakes. Recent research has confirmed the remarkable olfactory sensitivity of some animal species, but no quantitative comparisons with geochemical precursors can be made yet. We find no evidence that magnetic field precursors or precursory high‐frequency (above 10 kHz) sounds are the cause of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes. Although some animals are highly sensitive to these stimuli, observed magnetic precursors tend to be of low amplitude amid relatively high noise levels, and high‐frequency sound is severely attenuated within a short distance from the earthquake hypocenter. Knowledge of animal sensory capabilities may suggest an instrumental strategy for detecting earthquake precursors. We recommend further geophysical research in seismic areas to measure (1) seismic waves in the frequency range 10–50 Hz, (2) earthquake‐related electric field changes and air ionization, and (3) coseismic or preseismic release of trapped gases other than radon. Further biological research can refine our understanding of (1) responses to sounds and vibrations with frequencies below 50 Hz, (2) the effects of electrical and electrostatic changes on animal behavior, (3) behavioral responses to odors, and (4) sensory capabilities of common domestic animals like horses, dogs, and chickens, which are seldom studied but commonly mentioned in the preearthquake reports.

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Section: Other Precursory Phenomenamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unusual animal behavior before earthquakes: A review of possible sensory mechanisms

Buskirk¹,

Frohlich²,

Latham³

1981

Reviews of Geophysics

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“…However, an examination of old survey records has established that a similar uplift occurred in the Palmdale area sometime between 1897 and 1914. Castle (1977) stated that this uplift was not accompanied by a major earthquake although later studies reported by Ward (1979) indicate that the southern boundary of this uplift extended to the vicinity of Lompoc and Long Beach, California, where large earthquakes were experienced in 1927 and 1933, respectively, shortly after this uplift partly subsided.…”

Section: Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…IF general, could provide final warning system. Refs,: Press (1975), Kisshnger and wyss (1975), Allen et al (1978), Ward [1979). Iwatsubo and Mortensen (1979).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seismic safety in nuclear-waste disposal

Carpenter¹,

Towse²

1979

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Seismic safety is one of the factors that must be considered in the disposal of nuclear waste in deep geologic media. This report reviews the data on damage to underground equipment and structures from earthquakes, the record of associated motions, and the conventional methods of seismic safety-analysis and engineering. Safety considerations may be divided into two classes: those during the operational life of a disposal focility, and those pertinent to the post-decommissioning life of the facility. Operational hazards may be mitigated by conventional construction practices and site selection criteria. Events that would materially affect the long-term integrity of a decommissioned facility appear to be highly unlikely and can be substantially avoided by conservative site selection and facility design. These events include substantial fault movement within the disposal facility and severe ground shaking in an earthquake epicentral region. Techniques need to be developed to address the question of long-term earthquake probability in relatively aseismic regions, and for discriminating between active and extinct faults in regions where earthquake activity does not result in surface ruptures. vn 430 km (San Juan Bautista to Shelter Cove or Pt. Delgada, CA) 275 km (near San Bernardino to Parkfield, CA) 15 km along strike 8 km down dip Not reported. Not reported. Not reported. a See Wesson, et al. (1975). b See Sieh (1978). c See Savage, et al. (1975). d See Oakeshott (1969). Calculated from seismic data, maximum observed surface displacement totalled about 1.9 m.

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Long- and Intermediate-Term Seismic Precursors to Earthquakes-State of the Art

Reyners

2013

Maurice Ewing Series

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Earthquake prediction

Cited by 8 publications

References 156 publications

Unusual animal behavior before earthquakes: A review of possible sensory mechanisms

Unusual animal behavior before earthquakes: A review of possible sensory mechanisms

Seismic safety in nuclear-waste disposal

Long- and Intermediate-Term Seismic Precursors to Earthquakes-State of the Art

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