Earthquake Magnitude Distributions on Northern Caribbean Faults From Combinatorial Optimization Models

Geist, Eric L.; Brink, Uri S. ten

doi:10.1029/2021jb022050

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…(2022), using orthogonal convergence of 6–7 mm/yr, estimated return periods of 250, 550, and 1,000 years for Puerto Rico Trench earthquakes of M8.3 (slip 1.5 m), M8.7 (slip 3.7 m) and M9.0 (slip 7.1 m), respectively. But the fault loading depends on interplate coupling, which has been shown geodetically to be weak (ten Brink & Lin, 2004; ten Brink, 2005; ten Brink & López‐Venegas, 2012; Symithe et al., 2015), A combinatorial optimization method gave a seismic slip rate along the Puerto Rico Trench of 2 ± 1 mm/yr, along with a mean return time greater than 1,000 years for earthquakes of M > 8.1 (Geist & ten Brink, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The tsunami on Anegada about six centuries ago was an unusual event, whatever its source. As noted above, radiocarbon ages of stray coral clasts imply that it far exceeded all others on the island in recent millennia Lin, 2004;ten Brink, 2005;ten Brink & López-Venegas, 2012;Symithe et al, 2015), A combinatorial optimization method gave a seismic slip rate along the Puerto Rico Trench of 2 ± 1 mm/yr, along with a mean return time greater than 1,000 years for earthquakes of M > 8.1 (Geist & ten Brink, 2021).…”

Section: Earthquake Recurrencementioning

confidence: 98%

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Modeled Flooding by Tsunamis and a Storm Versus Observed Extent of Coral Erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands—Further Evidence for a Great Caribbean Earthquake Six Centuries Ago

Wei,

ten Brink,

Atwater

2024

JGR Solid Earth

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Models of near‐field tsunamis and an extreme hurricane provide further evidence for a great precolonial earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench. The models are benchmarked to brain‐coral boulders and cobbles on Anegada, 125 km south of the trench. The models are screened by their success in flooding the mapped sites of these erratics, which were emplaced some six centuries ago. Among 25 tsunami scenarios, 19 have megathrust sources and the rest posit normal faulting on the outer rise. The modeled storm, the most extreme of 15 hurricanes of category 5, produces tsunami‐like bores from surf beat. In the tsunami scenarios, simulated flow depth is 1 m or more at all the clast sites, and 2 m or more at nearly all, given either a megathrust rupture 255 km long with 7.5 m of dip slip and M8.45, or an outer‐rise rupture 130 km long with 11.4 m of dip slip and M8.17. By contrast, many coral clasts lie beyond the reach of simulated flooding from the extreme hurricane. The tsunami screening may underestimate earthquake size by neglecting trees and shrubs that likely impeded both the simulated flows and the observed clasts; and it may overestimate earthquake size by leaving coastal sand barriers intact. The screening results broadly agree with those from previously published tsunami simulations. In either successful scenario, the average recurrence interval spans thousands of years, and flooding on the nearest Caribbean shores begins within a half‐hour.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Earthquake Recurrencementioning

confidence: 98%

Modeled Flooding by Tsunamis and a Storm Versus Observed Extent of Coral Erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands—Further Evidence for a Great Caribbean Earthquake Six Centuries Ago

Wei,

ten Brink,

Atwater

2024

JGR Solid Earth

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“…Beach ball – Epicenter of the largest earthquake during the 2020 seismic sequence, the January 7, 2020 Mw6.4. Black lines – Major faults after Geist and ten Brink (2021). Blue lines – GPS vectors with length proportional to long‐term velocities relative to fixed Caribbean plate from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (Table S2 in Supporting Information S1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mature Diffuse Tectonic Block Boundary Revealed by the 2020 Southwestern Puerto Rico Seismic Sequence

et al. 2022

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Distributed faulting typically tends to coalesce into one or a few faults with repeated deformation. The progression of clustered medium‐sized (≥Mw4.5) earthquakes during the 2020 seismic sequence in southwestern Puerto Rico (SWPR), modeling shoreline subsidence from InSAR, and sub‐seafloor mapping by high‐resolution seismic reflection profiles, suggest that the 2020 SWPR seismic sequence was distributed across several short intersecting strike‐slip and normal faults beneath the insular shelf and upper slope of Guayanilla submarine canyon. Multibeam bathymetry map of the seafloor shows significant erosion and retreat of the shelf edge in the area of seismic activity as well as slope‐parallel lineaments and submarine canyon meanders that typically develop over geological time. The T‐axis of the moderate earthquakes further matches the extension direction previously measured on post early Pliocene (∼>3 Ma) faults. We conclude that although similar deformation has likely taken place in this area during recent geologic time, it does not appear to have coalesced during this time. The deformation may represent the southernmost part of a diffuse boundary, the Western Puerto Rico Deformation Boundary, which accommodates differential movement between the Puerto Rico and Hispaniola arc blocks. This differential movement is possibly driven by the differential seismic coupling along the Puerto Rico—Hispaniola subduction zone. We propose that the compositional heterogeneity across the island arc retards the process of focusing the deformation into a single fault. Given the evidence presented here, we should not expect a single large event in this area but similar diffuse sequences in the future.

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Employing Remote Sensing, Data Communication Networks, AI, and Optimization Methodologies in Seismology

Abdalzaher

El-Sayed

Fouda

2022

IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Observations Remote Sensing

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Seismology is among the intrinsic sciences that strictly affect human lives. Many research efforts are presented in the literature aiming at achieving risk mitigation and disaster management. More particularly, modern technologies have been employed in such a pivot. However, the day-to-day challenges and complexities of such natural science that face the stack holders still need more reliable and intelligent solutions. The solution can depend on a partial or integrated system of modern technologies. In this paper, we extensively survey the co-related modern technologies aiming to gather the major efforts exerted in this regard. It also outlines the desirability of seismology to modern technologies. Then, we present a detailed analysis of remote sensing and data communication networks (DCNs), which are considered the backend of seismic networks. Furthermore, for seismology, we depict both classical and non-classical approaches based on DCN principles, such as optical fiber-based acoustic sensors, social media, and the internet of things (IoT). Following that, a comprehensive description of the various optimization techniques utilized for seismic wave analysis and for prolonging network lifetime is offered. A description of the important functions that artificial intelligence (AI) can play in different fields of seismology is also included. Finally, we present some recommendations for stack holders to prevent natural calamities and preserve human lives.

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Earthquake Magnitude Distributions on Northern Caribbean Faults From Combinatorial Optimization Models

Cited by 5 publications

References 78 publications

Modeled Flooding by Tsunamis and a Storm Versus Observed Extent of Coral Erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands—Further Evidence for a Great Caribbean Earthquake Six Centuries Ago

Modeled Flooding by Tsunamis and a Storm Versus Observed Extent of Coral Erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands—Further Evidence for a Great Caribbean Earthquake Six Centuries Ago

Mature Diffuse Tectonic Block Boundary Revealed by the 2020 Southwestern Puerto Rico Seismic Sequence

Employing Remote Sensing, Data Communication Networks, AI, and Optimization Methodologies in Seismology

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