Earthquake forecasting: a possible solution considering the GPS ionospheric delay

Abstract

Abstract. The recent earthquakes in L'Aquila (Italy) and in Japan have dramatically emphasized the problem of natural disasters and their correct forecasting. One of the aims of the research community is to find a possible and reliable forecasting method, considering all the available technologies and tools. Starting from the recently developed research concerning this topic and considering that the number of GPS reference stations around the world is continuously increasing, this study is an attempt to investigate whether it is possible to use GPS data in order to enhance earthquake forecasting. In some cases, ionospheric activity level increases just before to an earthquake event and shows a different behaviour 5-10 days before the event, when the seismic event has a magnitude greater than 4-4.5 degrees. Considering the GPS data from the reference stations located around the L'Aquila area (Italy), an analysis of the daily variations of the ionospheric signal delay has been carried out in order to evaluate a possible correlation between seismic events and unexpected variations of ionospheric activities. Many different scenarios have been tested, in particular considering the elevation angles, the visibility lengths and the time of day (morning, afternoon or night) of the satellites. In this paper, the contribution of the ionospheric impact has been shown: a realistic correlation between ionospheric delay and earthquake can be seen about one week before the seismic event.

Efek Gelombang Tsunami Aceh 2004 Pada Gangguan Ionosfer Bergerak Skala Menengah Dari Pengamatan Jaringan GPS Sumatra

“…Dalam kasus studi ini, gangguan pada variasi TEC yang diasosiasikan sebagai MSTID direpresentasikan pada model ionosfer sebagai lapisan tunggal (single layer model) [25]. Dengan demikian bahwa untuk menghitung kecepatan MSTID tersebut maka pemodelan yang dilakukan harus proporsional dengan ketinggian ionosfer sebernarnya yaitu diketinggian sekitar 350 km [18].…”

Very short-term earthquake precursors from GPS signal interference based on the 2013 Nantou and Rueisuei earthquakes, Taiwan

“…In last two decades, Global Positioning System (GPS) has been widely used as a tool to monitor earthquake precursors such as changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) (Afraimovich and Astafyeva, 2008;De Agostino and Piras, 2011;Liu et al, 2010;Liu et al, 2001;Thomas et al, 2012;Zakharenkova et al, 2007) or the production of systematic residual crustal displacements after removing periodic ones (Chen et al, 2013;Chen et al, 2014). In this study, we report a new type of earthquake precursor, namely the L-band interference signals detected by high-rate, Continuous GPS receivers (CGPS).…”

Analysis of the relationship between the earthquake and the GPS positioning error

“…的に捉えた報告 (廣岡ら、 2011) や、 地震発生前の E 層、 F 層の異常を報告した例 (Liperovskaya, E. V., et al, 2011)もある。これらの電磁気学的な現象を用いた短期地震予知に期待が高ま っている。 地震の前兆現象としての電磁気学的な現象の 1 つとして、 地震発生前に生じた GPS 測位 で使用されている電波の遅延に関する研究事例がある (Agostino, M. De., et al, 2011 -10 -5 0 5 10 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 Positioning error in north-south direction 10 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00: -10 -5 0 5 10 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 10 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:…”