Earthquake Damage Repair Loss Estimation in New Zealand: What Other Variables Are Essential Based on Experts’ Opinions?

Kahandawa, Ravindu; Domingo, Niluka; Chawynski, Gregory; Uma, S.R.

doi:10.3390/buildings11090385

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…For the case of earthquakes, to the knowledge of the authors, there are no studies providing a comprehensive database or model for PLA. The only qualitative approximations were performed by Olsen (2012), Chang et al (2012), and Kahandawa et al (2021). Olsen (2012) studied this phenomenon based on data from three earthquakes (1886 M7.3 Charleston, 1906, M7.9 San Francisco, and 1994 M6.7 Northridge), reaching similar conclusions to those of their study for hurricanes.…”

Section: Development Of An Earthquake Pla Empirical Modelmentioning

confidence: 82%

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A database and empirical model for earthquake post-loss amplification

Hoyos,

Silva

2023

Earthquake Spectra

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The impact of destructive earthquakes might exceed the local capacity to cope with disasters and lead to an increase in the reconstruction costs. This phenomenon is commonly termed as post-loss amplification, and its main causes include the increase in the cost of construction materials and labor due to the sudden demand, the need to reconstruct following higher standards, or other unexpected costs. We reviewed 70 past earthquakes to identify events where post-loss amplification was observed, and collected a set of seismogenic, socio-economic, geographical, and impact variables for those events. Using this database, we developed two models to predict post-loss amplification, using a composite indicator that reflects the level of destruction in the region, or a parameter that characterizes the frequency of the event. This study indicates increased costs (>10%) for events where the economic losses exceed 1% of the regional gross domestic product, or for events with an estimated return period of at least 10 years. These models can be applied directly in the amplification of economic losses in earthquake scenarios or in probabilistic seismic risk assessment.

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Section: Development Of An Earthquake Pla Empirical Modelmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Chang et al (2012) performed a statistical analysis using questionnaires completed by construction experts after the 2008 M7.9 Sichuan earthquake. Kahandawa et al (2021) analyzed essential variables affecting repair costs in New Zealand.…”

Section: Development Of An Earthquake Pla Empirical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A database and empirical model for earthquake post-loss amplification

Hoyos,

Silva

2023

Earthquake Spectra

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“…The possible short-term increase in local construction prices because of the demand surge immediately following a disaster (Ruddock et al , 2010; Wedawatta et al , 2018; Ortiz et al , 2021; Kahandawa et al , 2021) should also be considered. However, the causes and evidence of liquefaction damage repair cost escalations following CES (Kahandawa et al , 2021) show that the extent of such factors may be difficult to predict accurately. Further, because the nature and extent of liquefaction depend on local soil conditions, it is difficult to estimate other associated costs such as additional external works, cost of demolition and clearing of debris in a forward-looking liquefaction mitigation CBA.…”

Section: Findings and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The replacement cost could be sourced through local knowledge of new building rates or through published cost data (as in Martins, 2018;Paxton et al, 2015;Ramirez et al, 2012) which could be adjusted to account for location and other building morphological factors such as height and architectural and structural design (Ramirez et al, 2012;Ashworth and Perera, 2015). The possible short-term increase in local construction prices because of the demand surge immediately following a disaster (Ruddock et al, 2010;Wedawatta et al, 2018;Ortiz et al, 2021;Kahandawa et al, 2021) should also be considered. However, the causes and evidence of liquefaction damage repair cost escalations following CES (Kahandawa et al, 2021) show that the extent of such factors may be difficult to predict accurately.…”

Section: Issues Related To Antecedent Loss Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost–benefit analysis to appraise technical mitigation options for earthquake-induced liquefaction disaster events

Wanigarathna

Jones

Pascale

et al. 2022

JFMPC

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Purpose Recent earthquake-induced liquefaction events and associated losses have increased researchers’ interest into liquefaction risk reduction interventions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there was no scholarly literature related to an economic appraisal of these risk reduction interventions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the issues in applying cost–benefit analysis (CBA) principles to the evaluation of technical mitigations to reduce earthquake-induced liquefaction risk. Design/methodology/approach CBA has been substantially used for risk mitigation option appraisal for a number of hazard threats. Previous literature in the form of systematic reviews, individual research and case studies, together with liquefaction risk and loss modelling literature, was used to develop a theoretical model of CBA for earthquake-induced liquefaction mitigation interventions. The model was tested using a scenario in a two-day workshop. Findings Because liquefaction risk reduction techniques are relatively new, there is limited damage modelling and cost data available for use within CBAs. As such end users need to make significant assumptions when linking the results of technical investigations of damage to built-asset performance and probabilistic loss modelling resulting in many potential interventions being not cost-effective for low-impact disasters. This study questions whether a probabilistic approach should really be applied to localised rapid onset events like liquefaction, arguing that a deterministic approach for localised knowledge and context would be a better base for the cost-effectiveness mitigation interventions. Originality/value This paper makes an original contribution to literature through a critical review of CBA approaches applied to disaster mitigation interventions. Further, this paper identifies challenges and limitations of applying probabilistic based CBA models to localised rapid onset disaster events where human losses are minimal and historic data is sparse; challenging researchers to develop new deterministic based approaches that use localised knowledge and context to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation interventions.

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